Brazil

The reporting period covers the growing stage of maize in northern Brazil and that of wheat in southern Brazil. The harvest of rice (in the north) and second maize concluded in early September, while the planting of the main maize crop started in October. Generally, crop condition in Brazil was below average during the monitoring period. 

Low rainfall (measured with the CropWatch RAIN indicator) dominated conditions across the country, with 16% below average rainfall. Temperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) at the national level are close to average. The below average rainfall resulted in a 21% negative departure of potential biomass compared with the five-year average. Among the nine major agricultural states, only Ceará, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná received above average rainfall with +5%, 11%, and 9% positive departures, respectively. All other 6 states suffered from water shortages, with rainfall deficits ranging from -7% in Rio Grande do Sul to -40% in Goias. Well-above average temperature was observed in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina. Ceará, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Mato Grosso received 7%, 5%, and 7% less radiation than average. Altogether, the nine major agricultural states all yield below average BIOMSS, ranging from 7% negative departure in Rio Grande do Sul to a departure of -33% in the state of Goias. 

The national NDVI development profile for Brazil presents below average values throughout the reporting period. As the major summer crops had already been harvested before the reporting period, the unfavorable conditions did not impact the final outputs of soybean and maize. The water deficit, however, could potentially hamper the sowing progress of summers crop for the following growing season. According to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles, eastern Rio Grande do Sul and the most eastern part of the Nordeste zone are the only regions where the condition of the crops is above the five-year average, a situation mainly due to excessive local rainfall. NDVI in all other regions was below the five-year average. The unfavorable conditions are confirmed by the low VCIx (0.6) nationally over cropland areas. VCIx for most croplands in central Brazil is lower than 0.5. CALF during the monitoring period is 1% below average, while annual cropping intensity is 3% above its five-year average.  

Wheat production is concentrated in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. With conditions generally favorable for Paraná and average for Rio Grande do Sul, CropWatch puts wheat production for Brazil at 8,337 ktons, 8% above the previous year. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological regions are identified for Brazil. These include the central savanna, the east coast, Parana river, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, subtropical rangeland zone, mixed forest and farmland, and the Nordeste. Over the recent reporting period, all zones received well below average rainfall, with the exception of the subtropical rangeland zone where rainfall was just 1% below average. Considering the crops calendar, this bulletin will focus on east coast Brazil, the Parana river zone, the subtropical rangeland zone, and the Nordeste.

Rice is a major crop in the East Coast Brazil zone during the monitoring period, and the overall crop condition for rice was unfavorable. RAIN was 31% below average, while temperature was 1.0°C below average, and RADPAR -5%. Unfavorable conditions resulted in poor crop conditions as indicated by NDVI below its five-year average in the NDVI based profiles. 

The Paraná River zone is the major wheat producing area of the country. Agroclimatic conditions were generally below average, with rainfall at -10%. CALF, however, is 98% for this zone, indicating that most croplands are cultivated; VCIx is 0.8. Overall the crop condition in this zone s at an average level, which can be explained by good management of the fields. 

Conditions were generally average in the subtropical rangeland zone during the monitoring period, with 1% above average RAIN, 1.7°C above average temperature, and average RADPAR, altogether resulting in 1% above average BIOMSS and CALF at 1% above its five-year average. According to the NDVI profiles, crops in this zone are at their five-year average condition and above that of the previous year. 

Finally, adverse weather conditions in the Nordeste zone have resulted in unfavorable crop condition. The region only received 26 mm of rainfall, down 48% compared to normal for the period. RADPAR was nevertheless 8% below average. Altogether, BIOMSS was 44% below the five-year average according to the model simulation. However, since most of the crops had already been harvested by the end of August, the low rainfall did not impact the final output in the zone. 

Figure 3.8. Brazil crop condition, July - October 2017

Figure 3.8a. Brazil phenology of major crops

Figure 3.8b. Brazil national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year (5YA) and maximum c. Brazil maximum VCI for July-October 2017 by pixel(left)

Figure 3.8d. Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and (e) the corresponding NDVI departure profiles

Figure 3.8f. Condition development graph based on NDVI for East coast zone (right) (g)Parana River (left)

Figure 3.8 hCrop condition development graph based on NDVI for Subtropical rangeland (right)(i)  Nordeste (left)

Table 3.11. Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017 

Table 3.12 Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.13 CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for Brazil in 2017 (thousand tons)