Canada

The current reporting period covers the development and early harvest of summer crops, and the harvest and sowing of winter wheat in Canada. Overall rainfall for Canada's agricultural areas was below average (-8%), which brought a slight drought to the crops. Temperature was slightly above (+0.7°C), while radiation and cropping index were average. The VCIx was 0.88, and the potential biomass was slightly below the recent five-year average (BIOMSS, -3%). A possibly (and only slightly) poor crop condition could be indicated.

Meanwhile, based on the national NDVI profiles and clusters, crop condition was below that of last year for the same period, a situation similar to the previous reporting period. The VCIx values in the central-south of the Canadian Prairies were mostly below 0.5 due to the aforementioned drought, providing a confirmation of the poor crop condition. In Manitoba (RAIN, -20%) and Saskatchewan (RAIN, -23%), two of the three main production provinces, the continuing drop in rainfall over two reporting periods resulted in a decrease in the biomass production potential (BIOMSS, -17% and -19%), respectively. 

Overall, the condition of crops in Canada was poor, even if indicators show a normal situation in the east. Generally, CropWatch assesses crop growth condition in Canada as below that of 2016. 

Regional analysis

For Canada, five agro-ecological regions are adopted by CropWatch to provide additional spatial detail. They include the Prairies (32) and the Atlantic Ocean area (34, Ontario and Quebec), which both are major food production regions for the country. The numbers identify the regions in the VCIx and other maps.

The Prairies region is the largest food production area in Canada. During the reporting period, rainfall was below average (RAIN, -13%). Although the weather was slightly warmer than expected (TEMP, +0.5°C), radiation was almost average (RADPAR, +1%), and the potential biomass dropped below the five-year average (BIOMSS, -12%). The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was stable, while VCIx was fair at 0.86. Taking into account the NDVI profiles, the difference between the current period and the five-year average ranged from 0.05 to 0.1, which provides supplementary evidence for the poor growth conditions. CropWatch predicts crop production will be below that of last year. 

In the Atlantic Ocean region, rainfall was below the average (RAIN -9%), the temperature was above (TEMP, +1.1°C), and both radiation and CALF were unchanged (PAR, 0%; CALF, 0%). The potential biomass was slightly below the five-year average (BIOMSS, -3%) as a direct consequence of the drop in rainfall. VCIx was 0.94. According to the NDVI profiles, crop growth conditions were mostly fair, but decreased below the reference in October. Crop production will be slightly lower than the previous year's. 

Overall, wheat production of Canada could undergo a drop due to the mild drought conditions, which affected mostly the development stages of winter wheat and spring wheat. Maize and soybean are mostly unaffected. As a result, CropWatch predicts a drop in wheat production (30,679 ktons, -7.8% below 2016), but slight increases for maize (11,881 ktons, +1.5%) and soybean (5,471 ktons, +1.6%).

Figure 3.9. Canada crop condition, July - October 2017

                                                                        (a).Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI             (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Atlantic Ocean (right))

Table 3.14. July - October 2017 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.15.  July - October 2017 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA

Table 3.16. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for 2017 (thousand tons)