The reporting period corresponds to the planting and growing of maize, as well as the planting, growing, and harvesting of Kharif rice and soybean. As the period included the most active part of the southwest monsoon, rainfall was 1089 mm rainfall on the national level, or 16% above average. Meanwhile, temperature (at 27.4°C) was just normal, while radiation at 918 MJ/m2 was 3% below average. 

Considering rainfall by state, results show that 17 states had positive rainfall departures in excess of 11% over average, ranging from 11 to 100%. This includes Puducherry +106%, Tripura +63%, Assam +45%, Tamilnadu +39%, West Bengal +34%, Gujarat +33%, Nagaland +26%, Jharkhand and Meghalaya +25%, Bihar and Manipur 23%, Andhra Pradesh and Mizoram +22%, Karnataka +17%, Rajasthan +13%, and Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh +11%. Other states, namely Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Daman and Diu, Odisha, and Uttarakhand, recorded +1%, +2%, + 3%, +5%, and +6% RAIN over the fifteen-year average, respectively. The states that recorded lower than average rainfall include Sikkim -6%, Kerala -11%, Himachal Pradesh -15%, Punjab -26%, Haryana -28%, Goa -34%, and  Delhi -38%.

Temperature for all states with the exception of Puducherry remained within 0.5°C of average. RADPAR departure was also within 5% of average for most of the states, with the exception of the following states: Sikkim -15%; Meghalaya and Tripura -12%; West Bengal -10%; Assam -8%; Bihar -7%; Kerala, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh -6%; and Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Rajasthan -5%. 

BIOMSS patterns mostly follow the average rainfall pattern. Increases over average BIOMSS by 10% or more were observed for the states of Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, and West Bengal. On the other end of the spectrum, drops in BIOMSS of 10% occurred in Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab. Other states are expected to produce near average BIOMSS and include Bihar, Chhatisgarh, Daman and Diu, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Nagaland.  It is stressed that, due to low RADPAR, large BIOMSS increases are unlikely. The NDVI profile for the country, which was initially low, picked up in the middle of the season, then increased above average and even reached higher than five-year maximum values in September. These indicators, coupled with VCIx values above 0.8 and higher than 95% CALF indicate the condition for average crop production. 

Regional analysis

Based on geography and agroclimatic conditions, India can be divided into seven agro-ecological regions, used by CropWatch to provide more detailed spatial analysis. The seven regions are central India, the eastern coastal region, Gangetic plains, the northeastern region, western coastal region, western dry region, and the western Himalaya. Crop prospects for six out of seven regions are described below.

In central India, average rainfall (999 mm, +1%) was recorded, while temperature was 0.2°C over the period's average and radiation 1% above. Accordingly, the agronomic indicators also show that the biomass production potential was 1846 gDM/m2, up +3% above the five-year average, while the cropped area was 99% of agricultural area. VCIx reached a rather high value of 0.96, indicating that there was no major crop stress. Crop condition development as observed through NDVI indicated that after an initial delay, crop growth picked up and by the end of August NDVI even exceeded the five-year maximum. Few pixels show VCIx values below 0.8. Thus, the region is due for near-average crop production.

The eastern coastal region received 1019 mm of rainfall, representing an amount 22% over average for the period of the year. Both temperature and RADPAR were average and provided favorable conditions for crop planting as well as growth. BIOMSS was estimated to be +19% compared with the five-year average . The cropped arable land fraction, however, was only 94%. Crop development and growth were initially low, but increased significantly in early September and remained even higher than the five-year maximum. Most of the region had VCIx above 0.8 with some large patches even above 1, indicating an average to good prospect for Kharif crops.

Next, 1145 mm of rainfall fell over the Gangetic plains, which was 22% above average. Temperature was average but radiation was poor (RADPAR -7%). Accordingly, the biomass production potential for the region was +2%. In response to favorable agroclimatic conditions, 98% of the agricultural area was brought under crops. Judging by the NDVI values, crop growing was delayed in August but then raised above the five-year maximum by October. In agreement with this finding, most of the region had VCIx values of 0.8 and at places higher than 1. Nearly average crop production is expected.

The northeastern region experienced the largest precipitation excess nationally (2060 mm or 36% above average. Temperature remained near average, but radiation was well below (-8%). The high BIOMSS measure of +10% brought about by high rainfall is unlikely to be achieved due to floods and poor sunshine. The region nevertheless achieved a cropped arable land fraction (CALF) of 95%. Crop condition as observed through NDVI was initially low but returned to average by the end of September, indicating delayed growth. VCIx was above 0.8 in most of the region. Crop output is deemed to be below or close to average due to low sunshine and water logging. 

With the western coastal region enjoying better than average rainfall (1106 mm, +10%) and near normal temperature and radiation, the BIOMSS index for the region was 18% above average. The region achieved very good CALF at 97% and a VCIx of 0.97. The NDVI development paralleled the situation in the previously described regions. Among all the regions, the western coast is the one with the most favorable indicators, which points to crop production being at least average.

The western dry region, as suggested by its name, usually records low rainfall. For the current reporting period, 732 mm of rainfall represented a 22% increase over average. With a temperature of 29.1°C, the TEMP indicator was average, while radiation at 982MJ/m2  was 4% below. As a result, biomass production is expected to be average as well. CALF, however, was only 80%, just 2% above the five-year average. The crop growth condition as observed through the NDVI profile indicates a late start for the crops, with growth picking up in August but falling below average in September. VCIx shows patches of pixels below 0.8 in many places and even some values below 0.5. All these would result in lower than average crop production in the region.

In summary, India experienced a mix of favorable and unfavorable conditions, with conditions depending on the region. Altogether, the 2017 Kharif production in the country is estimated to have been average or just below.

 a. Phenology of major crops

 b. Crop condition development based on NDVI                                                              c. VCI

d. Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                    e. NDVI profiles

       .f. Central India                                                             g   East coast  

                    h.  Gangetic plains                                                              i.   Northeast India                   

             j. Western coastal India                      

 Table 3.35. Indian agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2017

 Table 3.36. Indian agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2017

Table 3.37. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat and soybean production for India in 2017 (thousand tons)