Crop condition was generally below average from July to October 2017 in Iran. The summer crops (potatoes and rice) were harvested in August, while winter wheat and barley started to be sown in September. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -28%) was below average over the last four months, while temperature and radiation (RADPAR, +0.9%) were close to average. The unfavorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in a significant decrease in the BIOMSS index by 28% compared to the five-year average. The national maximum VCI index for this monitoring period was rather low at 0.61, while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 7%. The cropping intensity (1.4% below the five-year average) indicated lower crop land utilization in 2017.

According to the national crop condition development graphs, crop condition over the monitoring period was below average in most of Iran's crop areas accounting for 68.5% of its total arable land. Only 12.8% of croplands experienced favorable crop condition, mainly in Khuzestan, some regions of Mazandaran, and in Golestan and Razavi Khorasan provinces.

Overall, the unfavorable weather and crop condition prevailed during the monitoring period. The decrease of both rice area (-11.8%) and yield (-6.8%) resulted in a rice production at a level 17.8% below last year's harvest. The persistent rainfall deficit since the last season will affect the sowing of the winter crops.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation.The two regions are referred to as the west and north region and south coast.

In the west and north region, the accumulated rainfall (RAIN) was only 39 mm, representing a RAIN value 26% below average. Radiation and temperature were close to average. The water shortage due to low rainfall resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 26% compared to the recent five years average. A 10% drop in CALF and unfavorable crop condition, as shown by the NDVI profiles, both lead to the outcome of the summer crops season in this region to be assessed as poor. 

Compared to average, the south coast region received only 7 mm rainfall, 53% below average. The continued rainfall deficit since last season was the main factor behind the low CALF (6%) and poor VCIx (0.42). According to the NDVI profiles, however, crop condition for the region was close to the five-year average. Therefore, the outcome for summer crops of this semi-arid-region is nevertheless expected to be normal. 

Figure 3.17a Iran phenologyof major crops

Figure 3.17b. Iran nationallevel crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum (right) (c) (left) Iran maximum VCI for July-October 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.17d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns for July-October 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared tothe 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.17e. crop condition development graph based on NDVIWest and north region (Iran)(right)    (f) (left) South coast region (Iran

Table 3.38. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-nationalregions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.39. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-nationalregions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.40. CropWatch-estimated rice and wheat productionfor Iran in 2017 (thousands tons)