The monitoring period covers the growing and harvesting stages of spring wheat, barley, and other cereals in Kazakhstan. The crop condition in the country was generally normal. The national average VCIx was 0.84, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 6% compared to the five-year average. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN and RADPAR were above average (+18% and +3%, respectively), while TEMP was slightly below average (-0.6°C).  BIOMSS is expected to increase by +12% compared to the five-year average at the national scale. 

As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average from late July to October in most parts of the country. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that the crop condition was above average only from July to the beginning of August in 84% of the cropped areas. However, NDVI was 86.8% below average from late August to October compared with the five-year average in most parts of Akmola, the eastern and southern parts of north Kazakhstan, and the northern part of Pavlodar region. Currently CropWatch wheat production estimates are 8.8% below last year's output, due to a combination of decreased yield and reduced area.  

Regional analysis

The following paragraphs provide additional detail for the major agro-ecological zones of Kazakhstan, referred to as the northern zone, the southeast zone, and the southwest zone.

In the northern zone, crop condition was below the five-year average from late July to late October. RAIN and RADPAR were above average (by 8% and 3%, respectively) and TEMP was slightly below average (-0.6°C), resulting in a minor increase of the BIOMSS index (6%). CALF significantly increased by 5% compared to the recent five-year average. The NDVI profiles for the region were consistently below average. Overall, the outcome for the spring crops in the region is assessed as normal.

The southeast zone displays NDVI above the five-year average from July to late August, but values worsened from September to late October. RAIN was 67% above average, but TEMP and RADPAR were normal (-0.3°C and +2%, respectively). The agroclimatic indicators also resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 41%. The cropped area increased by 16% compared to the five-year average.  Overall crop prospects are favorable.

In the southwest zone, NDVI was generally above the five-year average from July to late September. RAIN was well above average (+82%), while TEMP and RADPAR were slightly above (0.7°C and 2%). The agroclimatic conditions resulted in a BIOMSS increase of 72%. CALF also significantly increased by 11% compared to the five-year average. Overall, the outcome for the crops is considered favorable in this region.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (left)           NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern region (left) (f) Southeast region (right

        (g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southwest region)

Table 3.41. Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.42. Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, August - October 2017