Myanmar is a major agricultural country that cultivates several main crops every year. Maize is distributed mainly in the Hills region, while wheat and rice are planted across the country. The reporting period covers the entire growing season and early harvesting season of main rice, while also the early sowing of wheat and maize (starting in September) are included. CropWatch assesses crop condition throughout the country as generally below the average of the previous five years during July and early September, but average in August and October.

As shown by the CropWatch agroclimatic indices, compared to average, rainfall increased by 9%; temperature remained average, and radiation showed a marked decrease (RADPAR, -4%). The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) showed no change, but cropping intensity increased by 9% compared to its five-year average. Sufficient precipitation and improved cropping intensity led to an increase in BIOMSS (+3%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI does not show a favorable situation. Crop condition, which had been unsatisfactory already in June, remained so in July, recovered to average in August before declining again in early September. Similar fluctuations of crop condition can also be seen for the agro-ecological regions described in the regional analysis below. 

In terms of spatial distributions, cropland across the country displayed bad conditions to different extents. The central areas of Mandalay and Magwe showed above average condition throughout the reporting period, while other parts of the two provinces and the north of Bago were below average during July. Moreover, Ayeyarwady and south of Sagaing suffered from poor crop condition during late August, recovering slowly in September. The maximum VCI (VCIx) map displays the same patterns of spatial distribution with high values in the central part of the central plain and low values in the coastal region.

Regional analysis

For Myanmar, again based on the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national, agro-ecological regions can be distinguished. They are the hill region, the central plain, and the coastal region. 

Maize, the major crop in the hill region, was harvested during the monitoring period. Agroclimatic indicators were close to the national values. According to the NDVI development graphs, crop condition was largely below average in early September, after which it recovered slowly though still remaining slightly below the average; this probably affected maize and eventually impacted its production.

The central plain is the main crop region of the country, and the area shows the most favorable values among the three sub-national regions discussed here. More precipitation compared with average and close to average temperature provided good condition for the crops.

The coastal region shows the least favorable agroclimatic and crop conditions for the country, especially in Ayeyarwady. The unfavorable crop condition in July and August substantially impacted the growing of main rice. Rainfall was somewhat below average (RAIN -2%) and radiation was poor (RADPAR -6%).

On the whole, crop condition for Myanmar for the reporting period was generally below average due to the adverse conditions the country suffered since June during the growing season of main rice and the harvest of maize. With a stable cropped arable land fraction (CALF), the poor condition of crops may lead to a reduction in production. CropWatch puts the productions of maize and rice during 2017 slightly below those of 2016.

Figure 3.21. Myanmar crop condition, July - October 2017

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI           (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(                            e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal region (left) and Central plain (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hill region)

Table 3.51. Myanmar agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2017

Table 3.52. CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Myanmar in 2017 (thousand tons)