The reporting period for this bulletin corresponds to Pakistan's maize and rice crop planting, growth, and harvesting. From July to October, the country received 293 mm rainfall, which was 4% above the fifteen-year average. Temperature, at 27.0°C, was 0.3°C below average, while radiation, at 1159 MJ/m2, dropped by 3%. As a result, the biomass production potential is estimated to be 616 gDM/m2, a drop of 6% compared to average. Similarly, the NDVI profile on the national level mostly followed the average line, occasionally dropping below it. For the country as a whole, CALF was 5.4% above average, but VCIx was still poor at 0.7 indicating just average crop condition in the country.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indus basin, the northern highlands, and the northern Punjab region.

The rainfall recorded in the Lower Indus basin reached 296 mm, which was 38% above average. Temperature here was average, but radiation was significantly below average (-5%) to the extent that the estimated BIOMSS departure of -1% compared to the five-year average is probably optimistic, even considering that the vast majority of crops is irrigated. Crop condition development as seen from NDVI was nearly average during the period. The CALF of 61% and a VCIx of 0.87 also indicate average crop condition. Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as marginally below average.

With a recorded amount of 333 mm, rainfall in the northern highland region was 11% below average. Radiation was low compared to average (RADPAR -4%) but temperature was close to average (-0.2°C). Accordingly, the biomass accumulation potential dropped 13% below average. The region also achieved a low CALF of 54%, representing a slight increase (+2%) over 2016. Crop condition development, which was initially close to average, declined from the middle of September. Large parts in the region show VCIx values below 0.8, indicating mixed crop prospects. Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as marginally below average.

Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan, received 445 mm of rainfall over the reporting period, which is 4% above the average. At 29.4°C, temperature was slightly below average, while the radiation departure was -3%. The resulting BIOMSS therefore fell 4% below the recent five-year average. The area had a good CALF of 81% (up 4% over 2016) and a VCIx of 0.88. Crop condition assessed through NDVI mostly followed the average profile. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is deemed to be just average.

In summary, CropWatch assesses the production of the major cereals in Pakistan as just average or slightly below average, and at the same level as during 2016.

Figure 3.23. Pakistan crop condition, July - October 2017

                                                              (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                               (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Balochistan Non-agricultural region (left) Lower Indus River Basin (right))

 (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland (left) Northern Punjab (right)) 

Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July - October 2017

  Table 3.57. Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July - October 2017

 Table 3.58. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice and wheat production for Pakistan in 2017 (thousand tons)