During the reporting period, maize and spring wheat in Romania were harvested from September, while winter wheat sowing started around the same time. Overall crop condition in the country was fair (VCIx = 0.86). Rainfall was somewhat below average (RAIN -8%) with abundant sunshine (RADPAR 7%) and average temperature. Compared with 2016, maize yield is expected to increase by 3.6%, while wheat yield shows a small decrease (-0.1%). The expected change in area for the maize, compared to last year, is 0.7%, while the wheat area is expected to remain the same (0.0%). Production of maize is also projected to increase, while wheat remains unchanged.

Regional analysis

More spatial detail is provided for three main agro-ecological zones in the country; they are the west region, the middle region, and a south and east plain region.

Crop condition was below average in all three regions, and especially so in the south and east plain region where, according to the NDVI development profile, values dropped markedly after July, possibly resulting from the drop in rainfall. In other regions, such as the west region and the northern part of the country, NDVI remained stable through the monitoring period. According to CALF values in the three regions, nearly all fields were cultivated (CALF close to 100%).

All three regions suffered from a mild rainfall (RAIN) deficit compared with average: west region -5%, middle region -7%, and the south and east plain region -10%. Winter wheat, the main crop sowed in September, may require additional precipitation.

Temperature was average in the three regions, but sunshine increased markedly: RADPAR +5% in the west region and +6% in the other two. These changes may to some extent compound the shortage of rain by increasing crop water consumption. BIOMSS changes for the regions vary between -1% and -4%. More significant impacts are also likely as a result of the increased sunshine, both for the summer crops (maize and spring wheat, harvested since September) and the forthcoming winter crops.

All three regions of Romania enjoyed high VCIx values in excess of 0.85. For the west region, crop condition was not so good near the western border (VCIx near 0.5), while in the agriculturally less important middle region, indicators were rather satisfactory. For the south and east plain, crop condition was not favorable (VCIx close to or below 0.5). 

Overall, crop prospects for Romania remain fair. As for the prospects for winter wheat, they much depend on future rain.

Figure 3.26. Romania crop condition, July-October 2017

                                                                 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI              (c)  NDVI profiles

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                              (e) Maximum VCI

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (West Region (left) and Middle Region (right))

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South&East Plain)

Table 3.65. Romania agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.66. Romania agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2017

Table 3.67.CropWatch-estimated maizeand wheat production for Romania in 2017 (thousand tons)