In the Ukraine, maize harvest started in September, while winter wheat was sown after the harvest of the previous season's crop in July. On the national level, temperature and radiation were close to their average values (TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR +2%), while rainfall was in slight deficit (RAIN -6%). At the national level, and compared against the recent five-year average, both cropping intensity and the fraction of cropped arable land were low (CI -17%; CALF -1%); NDVI was generally low as well, which all resulted in a slight decrease of the biomass production potential (BIOMSS -1%). At 0.82, the national maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was fair, but it varied from region to region. According to the VCIx and NDVI cluster maps, the least favorable crop condition occurred in the southern wheat and maize areas. 

Overall, CropWatch puts the maize production for Ukraine at 2.0% above last year's output, while wheat production is projected to drop 5.8%.

Regional analysis

To provide additional spatial detail, CropWatch analysis is also provided for the following four major agro-ecological zones: the central wheat area, the northern wheat area, the mountain region, and the southern wheat and maize area.

As indicated mainly by the regional NDVI development profile, below average crop condition prevailed over the central wheat area. Although temperature and radiation were close to average (TEMP +0.3°C; RADPAR +1%), cropped arable land fraction was also stable (CALF 100%), while rainfall deficiency (RAIN -12%) lead to a 6% reduction in potential biomass (BIOMSS) compared to its five-year average for the region.  

In the northern wheat area, favorable agroclimatic conditions benefited crop growth, with sufficient rainfall (RAIN +8%) and average temperature and radiation (TEMP -0.1°C; RADPAR -1%). BIOMSS was 8% above average, VCIx was good (0.96), and all cropland was in use (CALF is 100%), which should result in above average production.

Next, the mountains region of Ukraine received slightly less precipitation than normal (RAIN -5%), with normal temperature (TEMP -0.1°C) and higher than average radiation (RADPAR +4%), resulting in a BIOMSS increase of 5% above the five-year average. The agronomic indicators for the region all show favorable conditions (CALF 100%, VCIx 0.96, and a near average NDVI development profile), which is expected to result in a good crop.

Conditions were less favorable, as already mentioned, in the southern wheat and maize area, which featured a deficit in rainfall (RAIN -20%) accompanied by slightly higher temperature and radiation (TEMP +0.5°C, RADPAR +4%). As a result, biomass is projected to be 15% below the five-year average. Significantly below average crop condition is also suggested by the regional NDVI development profile, a decrease in the cropped arable land fraction (CALF -2%), and low VCIx (0.71). Altogether, crop production is expected to decrease in this area.

Figure 3.30. Ukraine crop condition, July-October 2017

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Cebntral wheat area (left) and Northern wheat area (right))

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mountains regions (left) and Southern wheat and maize area (right))

Table 3.77. Ukraine agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.78. Ukraine agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.79. CropWatch-estimated maize, wheat and soybean production for Ukraine in 2017 (thousand tons)