During the reporting period, winter wheat harvesting in South Africa started in early October. Eastern parts of the country are currently sowing a new maize crop, whose establishment so far is promising as observed from the spatial NDVI profiles. In the wake of the previous seasons' El-Niño conditions, rainfall was 40% below average (70 mm against an average of 120 mm). Temperature, however, was almost exactly average. With radiation and biomass production potential reduced by 2% and 35%, respectively, the country is currently experiencing moderate growing conditions. The maximum VCIx is reportedly good (>0.8) in most parts of Western Cape, the northwest, Gauteng, northern Mpumalanga, and eastern Kwa-Zulu Natal and Eastern Cape.

A notable reduction in the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was observed ranging from 4% in the humid subtropical region to about 27% in the arid desert region. In the Mediterranean region of the Western Cape, the reduction in cropped area (CALF -10%) could partly explain the corresponding poor vegetation condition (VCIx 0.32).

Following this notable reduction in CALF, wheat production in South Africa is likely to be less than the previous year’s in some areas. Last season's droughts, which depleted irrigation reserves, could have influenced farmers' decisions to reduce cropped area. Currently, CropWatch estimates a wheat production reduction of 8%, while a high estimated increase for maize production (about +57%) is attributed mainly to very favorable rainfall intensity and distribution during the growing season. 

Regional analysis

South Africa's four main agro-ecological growing regions are considered in this analysis; they are the humid subtropical region, the Mediterranean region, the arid desert region, and the semi-arid steppe. Generally, fluctuations in vegetation conditions have continued to prevail in these regions with a remarkable rainfall reduction in some  areas.

Most of wheat in South Africa is grown in the Mediterranean Western Cape, and this crop is currently being harvested till around December. A 70% reduction in BIOMSS compared to the average for this region reveals the large differences in crop conditions currently on the ground. Rainfall, estimated at 29 mm, indicates a severe reduction (RAIN - 79%) compared to the average. Temperature and radiation were average over the period. Spatial NDVI profiles and crop development graphs show that throughout the growing season, the crop condition was much below average (VCIx was 0.32), with a reduced cropped area (CALF -14%), which resulted in the mentioned remarkable reduction in BIOMSS, as well as prospects for wheat production. 

In the humid subtropical region, vegetation conditions are currently slightly below average, though not so different from the average as seen from the NDVI profiles. At the same time, irrigated maize is growing in parts of the region and showing generally good conditions. According to the NDVI profiles, there is a slight improvement in vegetation condition compared to the average, despite the 45% reduction in rainfall reported for the region. Radiation (RADPAR) was down 4%, while the BIOMSS reduction was about 36%.

Next, with a rainfall reduction of 40% and a resultant BIOMSS reduction of 38%, indicators demonstrate continued dry conditions over the rangelands in the arid desert region. NDVI profiles revealed that this trend has prevailed for over a decade now, showing little or no improvement. Similar conditions were observed in the semi-arid steppe region. In this region, however, based on spatial NDVI profiles and the VCIx (0.74), better conditions apply.                                               

Figure 3.34. South Africa crop condition, July-October 2017          

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mediterranean region (left) and Humid sub-Tropical region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Arid desert region (left) and Semi-arid steppe region (right))

Table 3.89. July-October 2017 Agro-climatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.90. July-October 2017 Agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA

Table 3.24. CropWatch-estimated maize and  wheat production for 2017 (thousand tons)