4.4 China regional analysis

Northeast

For the Northeast region, the current monitoring period mostly covers the harvest of spring crops, which was concluded in October in most areas. “Single crops” (including maize, rice, and soybean) reached the grain-filling to maturity stages in August to late September. The overall condition of crops was below the five-year average before August, but it recovered when NDVI reached its peak.

According to the CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, rainfall increased +19% across the Northeast region. The increase in rainfall in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces was over 25%, while in Liaoning it was 10%. Rainy and cloudy weather (TEMP -0.3°C and RADPAR -3%) combined with abundant water supply led to a 4% increase in the biomass production potential, which indicates fair crop condition. Among the three provinces, Heilongjiang enjoyed a near 6% BIOMSS increase, with relatively ample rainfall.

The NDVI profiles for the region stayed below the five-year average before August, but then recovered to average before harvesting. According to the VCIx distribution map, almost all of this area enjoyed a suitable VCIx (over 0.8), which points to a generally good condition without impact of agricultural disaster events. The region also experienced a slight drought over the reporting period, which mainly affected the west of Liaoning and Jilin. As a result of heavy rain at the start of August, crop condition recovered. This is also confirmed by the NDVI cluster map, showing crops in west Liaoning and Jilin recovering and slightly surpassing average condition before August.

Figure 4.12a. China Northeast crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the current season up to October 2017 to the previous season, to the five-year average (5YA), and to the five-year maximum

Figure 4.12b. China Northeast  spatial NDVI patterns for July to October 2017 (compared to the (5YA) (left) and NDVI profiles associated with these spatial patterns (right)

Figure 4.12c. China Northeast maximum VCI, July-October 2017

Figure 4.12d. China Northeast BIOMSS, July-October 2017