Grain import and export in China in the first threequarters of 2017

Rice

In the first three quarters of 2017, the total import of rice in China was 2.9818 million tons, an increase of 16.3% compared to the previous year. The imported rice mainly stems from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan, respectively accounting for 57.9%, 30.1%, and 5.3% of imports. The expenditure for rice import was US$1358 million. Total rice exports over the period were 887,600 tons, mainly exported to the Côte d'Ivoire, Republic of Korea, and Turkey (29.6%, 14.9%, and 7.4%, respectively). The value of the export was US$420 million.

Wheat

During the first three quarters of 2017, Chinese wheat imports reached 3.6265million tons, an increase of 25.6% over 2016. The main sources include Australia (46.7%), the United States (37.7%), and Canada(7.6%). Imports amounted to US$847 million. Wheat exports were 98,300 tons. Hong Kong (58.9%), Korea (32.7%) were the main destinations of Chinese wheat exports. The value of the export was US$48 million.

Maize

In the first three quarters of 2017, maize imports totaled 2275,900 tons, down by 23.6% year-on-year. The main importing countries were Ukraine and the United States, accounting for 65.3% and 30.9% of imports respectively. The value of the import was US$472 million. Total maize exports were 75,200 tons, mainly exported to Japan (26.4%) and North Korea (66.6%). The value of the export was US$17.125 million.

Soybean

The total import of soybean was up by 16.8% to 71,451,700 tons in China during the first three quarters of 2017. Brazil, Argentina and the United States respectively contributed 60.0%, 6.3% and 28.9%, for a total value of US$2968,100 million. Soybean exports were 60,400 tons, down 13.1%. 

Import prospects for major grains in China for 2017

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Rice

According to the model forecast, rice imports and exports increased by 14.6% and 18.3% respectively in 2017. As the international rice prices continued to fall, domestic and international price differences still existed. The import of rice in our country will increase. It is estimated that the import of rice in 2017 will maintain its growth momentum within the quota range.

Wheat

China’s wheat imports will increase by 19.5 percent, but exports are projected to drop 13.1% compared with those of 2016. At present, the global supply and demand of wheat is still in a relaxed pattern. The persistence of high quality wheat price difference at home and abroad still exists. Wheat imports will grow steadily throughout the entire year.

Maize

According to the model forecast results, maize imports decreased by 25.4% in China in 2017, but exports increased by 17.9%. Due to the slackening global supply and demand of maize, prices at home and abroad both dropped. Maize imports are expected to decline sharply throughout the year in China.

Soybean

Soybean imports will increase by 5.8% while exports will be reduced by 7.2% in 2017. With abundant soybean supply in the world, China's soybean imports will remain at a high level. Under the impetus of the structural adjustment policies for planting, the domestic soybean production will increase and the space for the growth of imported soybean will narrow. It is estimated that the increase of soybean imports in 2017 will not be large.

Figure 4.18. Rate of changeof imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2017compared to those for 2016 (%)