Chapter 5. Focus and perspectives

5.1 CropWatch food production estimates

Methodological introduction

Table 5.1 presents global 2017 production estimates for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. Earlier estimates, published in recent bulletins, were prepared by the CropWatch team in May and August. The current version is the last revision for 2017 production. It is based on a combination of remote-sensing models (for major commodities at the national level) and statistical trend-based projections for minor producers with a national output approximately between 100 thousand and one million tons. The table includes China and the 30 countries (“30+1 countries”) which, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports of the main cereals and soybean.  

For the current reporting period, virtually all 2017 crops have been harvested in the temperate northern hemisphere, while in many tropical areas in both hemispheres rice crops are growing (to be harvested in early 2018) or are close to harvest. In the southern hemisphere the summer season/monsoon season is ongoing.

CropWatch estimates differ from global production data published by some other national and international institutions in two important ways: (1) they are modeled based on actual and direct geophysical observations of climate and crops, including up-to-date crop by crop distribution maps. For each crop, both yield variation and cultivated area variation are taken into account; (2) most of them (those shown in red in Table 5.1) are  independent of FAOSTAT [1], being based on sub-national country statistics.  

The numbers in red in Table 5.1 represent 22% (for soybean) to 89% (wheat) of the countries; when production amounts are considered, the modeled percentages vary from 96% (soybean) to 100% (wheat). This corresponds to 85% (wheat) to 89% (soybean and rice) of the worldwide production when trend-based production estimates for minor producers [2] are included. Numbers in black were derived based on trends computed from FAOSTAT data and previous CropWatch estimates [3]. They include minor crops for the major producers (such as rice in France or wheat in Myanmar), the sum of all minor producers at the global scale (including the 151 countries from Afghanistan and Angola to Zambia and Zimbabwe, which are shown as “Others” in Table 5.1), as well as the total production, which logically combines all data.  

Production estimates by country

CropWatch put the total output of the crops produced during 2017 at 2,509 million tons of major grains and 326 million tons of soybeans. The major grains are made up almost exactly by 41% maize (1,027,897 thousand ton, +2.5% over last year's output), 30% rice (as paddy, 745,448 thousand tons, +1.0% from the previous year), and 29% wheat (735,587 thousand tons, down -0.5% from 2016). The 2016 shares were 40% for maize and 30% for wheat; The differences are small but show the continuing global trend of the growth of maize at the expense of rice and wheat.

As often happens, the bulk of minor producers (“Others” in Table 5.1), where food is grown more for local consumption by people and animals than for industrial uses and export, generally perform better than the major producers, among others because most of them have not reached the environmental and economic constraints that prevent the expansion of land and the increase of yields. For instance, maize production by the minor producers is up 5.9%, rice increases 1.0%, wheat 4.1%, and soybeans 13.1%, illustrating the appeal for maize and the efforts in many countries to satisfy the ever growing demand for soybean at the national and international levels.  

Among the three major cereal producers, the output of China reached 519,584 thousand tons (down 1.9% from 2016), while 435,918 thousand tons were produced in the United States (+0.1%) and a significantly lower amount of 275,676 thousand tons in India (+5,4%). Although India remains a relatively minor producer of maize (19,034 thousand tonnes), it still out-produces the 4th and 5th cereal producers in terms of total cereal output (Brazil with 103,483 thousand tonnes, +16.2%; Indonesia with 86,202 thousand tonnes, -1.6%).  

Most eastern and southeastern Asian countries suffered unfavorable weather conditions (mostly excess precipitation), which directly impacted their cereal productions. In addition to the already mentioned drop in China, other countries with reduced rainfall include Bangladesh (RAIN -4.8%), Thailand (-2,8%), Indonesia (-1.6%), and Myanmar (-0.6%). Notable exceptions are the Philippines (RAIN +0.5%) and especially Vietnam (+5.8%). Some of the listed countries suffered severely from El Niño induced drought in 2016.  

Table 5.1. Summary of 2017 estimates of cereal and soybean output of major producers and variation (%), compared with 2016

Notes: Numbers in red are model-based estimates by CropWatch calibrated against national data up to 2016; numbers in black are (or include: last line) statistical projections based on FAOSTAT data up to 2014 and earlier CropWatch estimates for 2015 and 2016. “Others” is based on the sum of individual projections for 151 countries; there are several reasons why this is preferable to the projection of the sum of productions.

Maize

Countries that have to be singled out for their good performance in terms of maize production include the two South American “giants” Argentina and Brazil, where maize production grew 16.5% and +19.3%, respectively. These increases come after the first country's production stagnated in 2016 and the second country's production actually decreased by more than 10% in the last season. Both are now back to “normal” production levels. Poland (+27.8%) and South Africa (+57%) deserve mentioning as well, with South Africa now actually recovering from the serious El Niño drought that led to a 32% production shortfall in 2016. Both Pakistan and Turkey did well (+8.3% and +6.3%) after a poor season in 2016 (-7% and 0%, respectively).  

Poor conditions were already mentioned for cereals in general in Southeast and Eastern Asia, which also includes maize in Bangladesh (-5.5%, after years of steady growth), China (-5.2%, although the drop must be considered in a broader policy context that aims, among others, at relaunching soybean), Indonesia (-2.9%), and an important exporter in the region, Thailand (-1.6%).  

Rice

As far as rice is concerned, southern Asia did well, starting with Pakistan (+8.3% in rice production, following a 3.0% dip the previous season) and India (+4.1%, in spite of widespread floods). Vietnam, with a production increase of +6.7%, did well also, as did Cambodia (+2.4). China, the major rice producer, stagnated, while Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, and Myanmar underwent rice production decreases estimated to be -5.1%, -2.9%, -1.3%, and -0.5%, respectively. Rice did very poorly as well in Iran (-17.8% production) which, together with an even larger drop in wheat production (-20.8%) highlights Iran as the country where the largest drop in cereal production occurred.  

Wheat 

Australia suffered a drop in wheat production (-22.1%) that exceeds the combined loss of wheat and rice in Iran. Australia is followed by a long list of countries where wheat production declined, in the range from -4% to -8%. They include Ethiopia (-11.9%), Kazakhstan (-8.8%), Mexico (-7.8%), South Africa (-7.5%), Ukraine (-5.8%), and the United States (-3.6%). The largest increases occurred in already mentioned Brazil (+5.4%) and in India (+8.6%). We also mention Egypt (+7.4%), where the good wheat performance was accompanied by good maize (+3.8%) and rice (+4.0%) crops.

Soybean

The Indian soybean production of 12,159 thousand tons is marginally less (-0.1%) than the 2016 output. The major producer, the United States, suffered a slight decrease as well (-0.3%), equivalent to 375 thousand tons, which is largely compensated by the production increase in Brazil (+5.4%) equivalent to 4.9 million tons. For the last ten years, soybean production in the United States has on average exceeded Brazilian production by between 15 and 16 million tons annually, and it has not happened so far that Brazil has outperformed the United States. For the second year in a row, China has increased its soybean production, indicating that the new agricultural policy was apparently successful in halting the decade long period of decline in national production.  

Production by importers and exporters

The variation in the global demand for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean can be roughly assessed through variations in the domestic production of major importers [4] (Table 5.2). The 10 major importers, which account for about 22% of global maize production, have suffered a decrease of their domestic output of the commodity (-4.1% for the top 10 importers). The top 5 rice importers lost 1% of their domestic production compared with 2016. This indicates that international demand will be sustained for maize and rice. In contrast, importers increased their output by just under 4%.  

Table 5.2. Change (Δ%) in 2017 production compared with 2016 among the major exporting and importing countries   

Notes: Share % is the fraction of global production that is contributed by the top 5 and the top 10 countries. The identification of major exporters and importers was obtained from the following sources. Wheat, maize and rice export data source (2015 data): http://www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-exports-country/; Soybean exports combine meal and seeds: http://legroupindustries.com/top-10-exporters-of-soybeans-and-soybean-meals-by-country/ (2013 data); maize imports (2016 estimates) http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=corn&graph=imports; rice importer (2015)http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-largest-rice-importers-in-the-world.html; wheat imports http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=wheat&graph=imports; soybean imports (2011) www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/xls/book_fpep_ch9_3.xlsx.

Very similar situations prevail for wheat and soybean. The major importers account for about 5% of world production, and their domestic production increased by close to 4% (3.8% for wheat and 4.1 for soybean).

Considering that the volume of traded commodities is approximately equivalent for the top 10 importers and the top 10 exporters, the production deficit among importers is compensated by the increased production by exporters. For wheat, the opposite situation arises with increased production of importers reducing their import needs at a time when exporters globally reduced their production by 4.3%. As to soybean, the production increase among importers (especially China) will only marginally affect the markets of a commodity for which there is, at present, no apparent limit to demand.

[1] http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC

[2] Their number varies from 65 for soybean to 136 for maize, which is the most widely cultivated crop in addition to being the first in terms of production.

[3] The FAOSTAT database includes national production data up to 2014. For 2015 and 2016, CropWatch estimates were used.

[4] This discussion does not include countries where the 2016 production was estimated based on trend, such as is the case for the "minor producers."