Wheat and barley, the main crops of Australia, are planted mainly from the end of April to July and harvested from October to January. This reporting period covers the complete growing season and the early harvest of wheat and barley. The national NDVI profile shows below average conditions, compared to the last 5-year average, especially in July and August. However, the national NDVI was above average compared to last year.

Overall Australia was significantly short in rainfall with a 30% drop in RAIN, while the country experienced average temperature and 3% above average radiation. The spatial NDVI profiles shows that poor crop condition happened in eastern and southeastern parts of New South Wales, the northern part of Victoria and southeastern parts of South Australia. The CALF decreased by 2% below the recent five-year average during this season.

Regional analysis

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological regions for Australia, namely the Southeastern wheat zone, Southwestern wheat zone, Arid and semi-arid zone, Wet temperate and subtropical zone, and Subhumid subtropical zone.

Crop condition in the Southeastern wheat zone was basically below average from July to September, although condition returned to average in October during the early harvesting stage. The region experienced a 33% deficit of rainfall with average temperature and RADPAR, resulting in a low VCIx of 0.74. CALF decreased by 1%.

The Southwestern wheat zone shows above average condition according to the regional NDVI profile. The region experienced the least severe rainfall deficit (-10%) among the five agro-ecological regions; radiation (RADPAR) was low (-5%) and temperature was average. The weather-based potential biomass was 21% higher than its average of the last five years. The CALF also increased by 7%. The situation here is also reflected by the NDVI cluster maps in the Western Australia region, with a high VCIx of 0.9.

Crop condition based on NDVI profiles was below average in the Arid and Semi-arid zone. The region experienced a 27% rainfall deficit with average temperature and RADPAR, resulting in a low VCIx of 0.65. Furthermore, the CALF decreased by 9% indicating a rather serious reduction of the cropped area.

In the Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone crop condition was average according to the regional NDVI profile. Although the region was 39% deficient in rainfall (with average temperature and radiation), the sophisticated irrigation infrastructure has supplemented enough water to the crops. As a result, the VCIx finally reached 0.7 with CALF almost 100%, indicating average crop condition.

The Subhumid subtropical zone showed apparently below average condition during the monitored period based on NDVI. The region was 29% deficient in rainfall, with average temperature and RADPAR. The region experienced a sharply decreased CALF (-27%), indicating a marked decrease of the cropped area. As a result, the VCIx was only 0.51, confirming the poor crop condition.

On the whole, CropWatch estimates that the production of Australian wheat will decrease by 12.8% in 2018 compared with 2017, with a decrease in yield of 9.7% and an area decrease of 3.4%.

Figure 3.6. Australia cropcondition, July-October 2018

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e)NDVI profiles

(f)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southeastern wheat zone (left)and Southwestern wheat zone (right))

(g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid zone (left)and Wet temperate and subtropical zone (right))

(h)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone)

Table 3.5.Australia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.6.Australia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.7.CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Australia in 2018 (thousand tons)