The reporting interval (Jul. – Oct.) covers the planting and growing of Aman rice and harvesting of Aus rice. The CropWatch indicators and overall crop condition were close to normal during the reporting period. The country received the regular amount of rains (1476 mm), slightly below the average by 4 %. Temperature (28.6°C) was just below the average (-0.3°C), while sunshine was average. The overall biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) dropped 7% below the five-year average, while the crop arable land fraction (CALF) was close to average. The national NDVI profile remained below the average until September but increased in October to the level of the previous five-year average curve. 

In the Dhaka and Sylhet Divisions, the spatial NDVI profile remained above average during the monitoring period; it started below average in other Divisions but improving during the third decade of September and October. Over the whole country, the maximum VCI mostly  ranged from 0.8 to 1, indicating good crop condition.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh includes four Agro-ecological zones (AEZ) referred to hereafter as Coastal region, Gangetic plain, the Hills and the Sylhet basin.

The Coastal region received high rainfall (1317mm, 13% below average) and TEMP was 28.8°C (+1.2°C). RADPAR reached 1164 MJ/m2, which represents a drop of 3% below average; BIOMASS exceeded the 5YA by 3%. The CALF value was average and VCIx at 0.9 indicates generally good crop condition.

The Gangetic plain received a high amount of rain (1399mm, 2% over average) and TEMP dropped 0.3 °C below average, while RADPAR was up 2 %. CALF (95 % of the average) and VCIx at 0.9 with BIOMASS 12% below the 5YA, which indicates a small drop of production below the average.

The precipitation in the Hills amounted to 1567 mm (13% lower than average). TEMP was cooler by -0.7°C and RADPAR was at the average. The BIOMASS reached 2507 gDM/m2 and was 4 % above the 5YA. The CALF did not change relative to the 5YA, and VCIx was as high as 1, which indicates good crop condition.

The Sylhet basin recorded the highest precipitation in Bangladesh (1632 mm, the local average), with below average TEMP at 28.5°C (-0.4°C) and slightly above average RADPAR (1091 MJ/m2 or +3%). The BIOMASS was beneath the average (-11%), but CALF increased 2.5% above the 5YA, with the VCIx value at 0.9.

For the while season and compared with 2017, CropWatch projects yield reductions of 2.6% and 0.9% for Maize and Rice, respectively.

Figure 3. Bangladesh’s crop-condition, Jul. – Oct. 2018.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA               (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (CoastalRegion (left) and Gangetic Region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (HillRegion (left) and Sylhet Basin (right))

Table 3... Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA Jul. –Oct. 2018.

Table 3... Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from5YA, Jul. –Oct. 2018.

Table 3…. CropWatch-estimated rice and Maize production for Bangladesh in 2018 (thousand tons)