The reporting period covers the growing stage of maize in northern Brazil and that of wheat in southern Brazil. The harvest of rice (in the west) and second maize were concluded in early September, while the planting of the main maize crop started in October. Generally, crop condition in Brazil was below average during the monitoring period. Compared to last year’s, crop condition was better from middle September to the end of the monitoring period.

Abundant rainfall (measured by CropWatch indicator RAIN) dominated conditions across the country, with a 12% above average value. Both temperature (TEMP, -0.4℃) and RADPAR (-0.5%) were close to average. The above average rainfall resulted in a 24% positive departure of potential biomass compared with the five-year average. Among the nine major agricultural states, three suffered from water shortages, with rainfall deficits of -4% in Rio Grande do Sul, -16% in Santa Catarina and -19% in Ceara. The six other states received above average rainfall ranging from +4% in Parana to +51% in Mato Grosso Do Sul. Slightly above average temperature was observed in Ceara and Santa Catarina. Mato Grosso Do Sul, Ceara and Minas Gerais recorded average or just above-average radiation while marked sunlight deficits affected Parana (-3%), Minas Gerais (-4%), Rio Grande do Sul (-5%) and Santa  Catarina (-6%). Altogether, the nine major agricultural states all yield above average BIOMSS, ranging from 10% positive departure in Rio Grande Do Sul to a departure of +59% in the state of Ceara.

The national NDVI development profile for Brazil presents below average values throughout the reporting period except for October. The abundant rainfall will benefit the sowing of summer crop for the following growing season. According to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles, only 23% of the regions showed positive departures after mid-August where the condition of the crops is above the recent five-year average, a situation mainly due to abundant local rainfall. NDVI in all other regions was generally below the five-year average. The unfavorable conditions are confirmed by the relatively low VCIx (0.71) nationally over cropland areas. Low VCIx values for croplands occur mainly in some parts of central and south-central Brazil. CALF was 1% above average, while annual cropping intensity was 1% below.

CropWatch puts wheat production for Brazil at 7914 thousand tons, 3.8% below the previous year. The production of maize, rice, and soybean are all increasing,

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological regions are identified for Brazil. These include the central savanna, the east coast, Parana river, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, subtropical rangeland zone, mixed forest and farmland, and the Nordeste. Over the recent reporting period, 6 zones received well above average rainfall, with the exception of the southern subtropical rangeland zone where rainfall was average and the Amazons where it was 7% below average. Considering the crop calendar, this bulletin will focus on east coast of Brazil, the Parana river zone, the subtropical rangeland zone, and the Nordeste.

Rice is a major crop in the East Coast Brazil zone during the monitoring period; the overall condition of the crop was quite favorable. RAIN was 14% above average.TEMP was average and RADPAR up 1%. Favorable conditions didn't promote good crop conditions as indicated by NDVI below its five-year average in the NDVI based profiles.

The Paraná River zone is the major wheat producing area of the country. Agroclimatic indicators of TEMP and RADPAR were generally below average, while RAIN was up 14%.  CALF, however, is 97% for this zone, indicating that most croplands are cultivated; VCIx is 0.8. Overall the crop condition in this zone is at an average level.

Conditions were generally poor in the subtropical rangeland zone during the monitoring period, with 6% below average RADPAR, 0.4°C below average temperature, and average RAIN. CALF was at 1% above its five-year average. According to the NDVI profiles, crops in this zone are below their five-year average condition and that of the previous year.

Finally, although weather conditions in the Nordeste were generally better than the average, the crop condition was poor as a result of the poor rainfall. The region only received 56 mm of rainfall, up 11% compared to normal for the period. RADPAR was 2% above average, and TEMP 0.8℃ above. Altogether, BIOMSS was 61% above the five-year average according to the model simulation.

Figure 3.8. Brazil crop condition, July-October 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Savanna)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Parana River (left) and Amazon (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mato Grosso region (left) and Subtropical rangeland (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed forest and farmland (left) and East coast zone (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil Nordeste

Table 3.11. Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.12. Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.13. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for Brazil in 2018 (thousand tons)