Ethiopia

The monitoring period covers part of the main rainy season in Ethiopia. The peak of rainfall occurred during the Meher season, specifically  July and August at a time when most cereals were in full growth. The  late Meher wheat is harvested up to November, while the harvest of maize took place in October. CropWatch national agroclimatic indicators show that there was a 10% drop in RAIN, stable temperature, and a marked an increment (3%) of RADPAR. Also, at the national level, as shown by the crop condition development graph, national NDVI values were below five-year average, which is confirmed by a significant decrease for the BIOMASS indicator (-24%). The spatial NDVI patterns compared to the five-year average and corresponding NDVI departure profiles further indicate that NDVI was above average in 77.5% of arable land, with below average NDVI in the other regions. This spatial pattern is reflected by the maximum VCI in the different areas, with high values of  VCIx  0.93 and a 1% increase in CALF.  Central to southern  Amhara region recorded very favorably high VCIx, above 1. Most other regions had VCIx values between 0.8 and 1.0, including parts of central Tigray and Oromia. Generally, even though there was some rainfall deficit, the agronomic indicators show mostly favorable conditions. At national level, compared to the five- years average, the cropping intensity underwent a significant increase by 33 %. The 2018 production of maize is expected to be up 3.3 % over 2017, while the wheat production is estimated to decrease by 3.8 %.

Regional analysis

CropWatch has adopted four Agro-ecological zones to provide a more detailed spatial analysis during the monitoring period for the country; the semi-arid pastoral zone, southeastern mixed-maize zone, western-mixed maize regions, and central-northern maize-teff highlands, which are the major cereal producing areas of Ethiopia.

In the semi-arid pastoral zone, crop condition development was below the five-year average. With RAIN down 17% below average, BIOMSS fell as well (-28%) which negatively impacted livestock production. Temperature was stable but radiation was above average (RADAR  4%). The agronomic indicators show a CALF value of 92%, an increment of 1% above the five-year average. and a VCIx of 0.86. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI was below average. In general, all indicators point at favorable crop condition.

The southeastern mixed-maize zone is a major maize and teff producing area. It experienced a severe rainfall deficit in parts of central Oromia and northern Amhara.  Temperature and RADAR were essentially average but a 23% rainfall drop resulted in a 34% BIOMASS loss and a shortage of livestock feed.  CALF, however, was 97%, 3% above the five-year average, and the maximum VCIx value was 0.84. NDVI was generally below average; altogether, prospects are favourable for the southeastern mixed-maize zone.

The western mixed maize zone experienced more favourable conditions than the other zones. TEMP was average but RAIN dropped 7% and RADAR was up +2%. CALF remained constant, with a high VCIx value recorded for the region as a whole (0.96), Similarly, Crop condition was below average according to the NDVI development graph, an observation confirmed by the decrease of BIOMASS by 6%.  Overall the crop condition of this zone was  favorable.

Maize and teff are the major crops in the central-northern maize teff highlands. This zone commonly records high rainfall (about 750 mm) during the monitored period. 2018 rainfall  and temperature were somewhat below average (RAIN, -6%, TEMP -0.1%) while the radiation was above average (RADAR,+2). Although the biomass production potential was well below the recent 5YA (BIOMASS, -29%), CALF was above average by 1%. The region had above average VCIx (0.94). Based on CropWatch agronomic and agroclimatic indicators the crop condition is assessed as favourable in this zone.

Figure 3.17. Ethiopia’s crop condition, July -october 2018

                                                             (a). Phenology of major crops

                       (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                  (c) Maximum VCI

                            (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                (e) NDVI profiles

                   (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (semi arid pastoral) (g) western mixed maize zone))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (south eastern mixed maize zone) (i) Central‐northern maize‐teff highlands zone)

Table 3.31. Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July- october 2018

Table 3.32. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July- October 2018

Table 3.33.CropWatch‐estimated Maize and Wheat production for Ethiopia in 2018 (thousandtons)