In the United Kingdom crops showed unfavorable conditions during this reporting period. Summer crops have been harvested, while winter wheat and barley started to be sow in October. According to crop condition graph, NDVI values were below average from July to October. Agroclimatic indicators show that rainfall, radiation and biomass for the country were above average (RAIN, +8.4%, RADPAR,+3.1% and BIOMSS, +3.5%), and temperature close to average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate below average NDVI values in whole arable land including East Midlands region (Rutland, Lincoln and Leicester), East Anglia region (Northampton, Bedford), Southwest region's (Oxford, Buckingham, Berk, Somerset and Gloucester), and Yorkshire from July to early September, 80% of arable land had close to average condition (Cambridge, Suffolk, Essex, Huntingdon) in September and October. The national VCIx (0.81) was normal and the CALF is unchanged compared to its five-year average. Compare to five-year cropping intensity decreased by 1.2% in this reporting period. CropWatch estimates wheat production decreased 5.3% below 2017 values (yield down 6.2%, area up 1.0%).

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions are described below: Central sparse crop region, Northern barley region, and Southern mixed wheat and barley region. All three sub-regions are characterized by unchanged fractions of arable land (CALF) compared to 5 years average.

The central sparse crop region is one of the country's major agricultural regions in terms of crop production. NDVI values were below the five-year maximum according to the region's crop condition development graph from August to October. Rainfall was above average (RAIN+12%) and temperature and sunshine were close to average (TEMP +0.0°C, RADPAR +1%). The VCIx was above average at 0.87.

In the northern main barley region, NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graphs in this reporting period. Compared to the fifteen-year average, rainfall (RAIN, +21%) and temperature (TEMP, +0.5°C) were above average, radiation was slightly below average(RADPAR, -1%). The national VCIx with 0.84, it indicates favorable crop condition.

In the southern mixed wheat and barley zone, NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graph. Rainfall (RAIN -10%) was below average, but temperature and radiation were above (TEMP +0.6°C, RADPAR, +7%). The region had above average VCIx (0.79), although less so than the other regions.

(a) Phenology map

Figure 3.19 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   (c) Maximum VCI        

Figure 3.19 (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA        (e) NDVI profiles

Figure 3.19 (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central sparse crop region (left) and Northern Barley region (right))

Figure3.19 (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley region)

Table 3.37. United Kingdom’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2018

Table 3.38. United Kingdom’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2018

Table 3.39. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for United Kingdom in 2018 (thousand tons)