During this monitoring period, dry season maize and second rice matured and reached the stage of harvest. The sowing of main rice started in October. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that radiation was above average (RADPAR, 4%) and temperature was just average. Influenced by the scarcity of precipitation (RAIN - 11%), the crop production potential decreased 15%.Unfavorable crop condition arose in Indonesia according to NDVI development graphs. As shown in NDVI profiles, crop condition was slightly below average in 46.6% of total cropped areas. In 5.5% of arable land - mostly located in Papua - NDVI was at first significantly below average but improved after August. Crop condition in 19.6% of arable land in Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah and Jawa Timur was slightly below average before August and further deteriorated afterwards. Considering that the area of cropped arable land (CALF) in the country is comparable to the five-year average and the VCIx value of 0.90, the national production is anticipated to be below average in 2018.

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (64), Java (the main agricultural region in the country, 62), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (63) and West Papua (65), among which former three are relevant for crops cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

The weather of Java was exceptionally dry compared with average (RAIN, -73%), while temperature (TEMP, +0.9℃) and radiation (RADPAR +3%) were above average. Due to the scarcity of rainfall, biomass production potential suffered a significantly decrease of 42%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below the 5-year average. Overall, the crop condition in Java was unfavourable.

In Sumatra, the agroclimatic indices show around average RAIN (-1%), RADPAR (+2%) and TEMP (-0.3℃) which brought about a decrease of biomass production potential (BIOMSS,-12%). According to NDVI development graphs, crop condition was below 5-year average before mid-October and reached average values at end of October. Crop condition in Sumatra was average. 

Kalimantan and Sulawesi experienced dry conditions with rainfall decreasing 20% below average, temperature and radiation increasing 0.3℃ and 6%, which led to a decrease of biomass production potential by 17% compared to the recent five-year average. As shown in NDVI development graphs, crop condition was close to last year values before September. Crop condition in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was slightly below but close to average.

Considering that all the arable land was cultivated but that agroclimatic conditions were unfavourable, CropWatch anticipates that the yield of maize and rice in Indonesia in 2018 will decrease by 4.9% and 4.7%, respectively.

Figure 3.15a. Indonesia phenology of major crops

Figure 3.15b. Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum 

Figure 3.15c.  Indonesia VCI for July-October 2018 by pixel

Figure 3.15d.  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.15f. Sumatra crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15g. Java crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15h. Kalimantan and Sulawesi crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.32. Indonesia agroclimaticindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.33. Indonesia agronomicindicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from5YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.34. CropWatch-estimatedmaize and riceproduction for Indonesia in 2018 (thousands tons)