Crop condition was generally below average from July to October 2018 in Iran. The summer crops (potatoes and rice) were harvested in August, while winter wheat and barley started to be sown in September. Accumulated rainfall and temperature were above average (RAIN +53%, TEMP, +0.4°C), while radiation was close to average. The favorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in a significant increase in the BIOMSS index by 106% compared to the five-year average. The national average of maximum VCI index was 0.66, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 7% compared to the recent five-year average. The cropping intensity (4% above the five-year average) indicated higher crop land utilization in 2018.

According to the national crop condition development graphs, crop condition was above or close to average throughout the monitoring period in about 35.2% of croplands, mainly in East and West Azerbaijan provinces of the northwest region, extending south and southeast to Luristan and Markazi provinces. Remaining croplands experienced unfavorable crop condition from July to October, particularly in Ardabil, Gilan and Mazandaran provinces of the northwest area, most of northeast area, Fars and Bushehr provinces of the southwest area.

Overall, there was great spatial difference on crop condition  in Iran during the monitoring season. The increase of both rice area (+6.2%) and yield (+2.5%) resulted in an increase production by 8.9% compared to last year.   

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north(75), and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains(74). 

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, the accumulated rainfall was only 64mm but nevertheless 30% above average, and temperature (TEMP, 0.5°C) was also above average. The favorable weather conditions resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 85% compared to the recent five years average. The CALF increased by 8%. According to the NDVI profiles, the crop condition was above average in the first half of July and then dropped to below average in the same month until October. The national maximum VCI (VCIx) was 0.75. The outcome for summer crops of this season was favorable in this region. 

Crop condition in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region was far below average. The region received 81 mm rainfall during this report period. The rainfall far above average and warm temperature (TEMP, 0.5°C) resulted in a significant 294% increase of BIOMSS. NDVI profiles showed that NDVI did not exceed 0.18 during the monitoring period. The CALF was 5% and decreased by 4% compared to five-year average, and the average  VCIx (0.26) was low. Therefore, the outcome for summer crops of this region was very poor. 

Figure 3.17a  Iran phenology of major crops

Figure 3.17b. Iran national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.17c. Iran maximum VCI for July-October 2018 by pixel

Figure 3.17d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns for July-October 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right) 

Figure 3.17e. Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.17f.  Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.38. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.39. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.40. CropWatch-estimated rice and wheat production for Iran in 2018 (thousands tons)