The reporting period covers the growing and harvesting stage of spring wheat in Kazakhstan. The crop condition in the country was generally normal.  The national average VCIx was 0.83 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 5% compared to the five-year average. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN and BIOMSS were above average (+42% and +13%), while TEMP was slightly below average (-0.4°C). The cropping intensity decreased 4% compared to the five-year average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average from late July to October and above in early July. The spatial NDVI pattern and profile show that the crop condition in 48% of the cropped areas was above average from late August to September in  most parts of North Kazakhstan, Akmola, East Kazakhstan and Pavlodar provinces and some part of West Kazakhstan, Kyzylorda and Kostanay provinces. Furthermore, the spatial NDVI pattern and profile show that the crop condition in 6% of cropland was above average from late September to October in parts of East Kazakhstan, Almaty and north of Qaraghandy provinces. Currently CropWatch wheat production estimates are 1.9% below last year's output, while the area of wheat cultivation was reduced by 5.3%.

Regional analysis

In the Northern region, crop condition was above the five-year average in July and late October and below the five-year average in other months. RAIN was 25% above average and TEMP was slightly below average (-0.3°C). BIOMSS increased 7%. The maximum VCI index was 0.84, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 6% compared to the recent five-year average. Overall, the outcome for the crops was favorable in this region.

NDVI for the Eastern plateau and southeastern region was generally below the five-year average in July to October. RAIN was 71% above average, but TEMP was below (-0.6°C). The agroclimatic indicators also resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 24%. The maximum VCI index was 0.84, while the cropped area increased by 1% compared to the five-year average.  Overall crop prospects are normal.

The South zone experienced above average NDVI in August and below average values in other months. RAIN and RADPAR were above the five year average (61% and 1%), but TEMP was slightly below by 0.5°C respectively. The agroclimatic indicators also resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 45%. The maximum VCI index was 0.81, while the cropped area increased by 7% compared to the five-year average.  Overall crop prospects are favorable.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Northern region (left) Eastern plateau and southeastern region (right))

(g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in South region(left) and Central non‐agricultural region (right)

Table 3.55. Kazakhstan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July ‐ October 2018

Table 3.56. Kazakhstan’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July ‐ October 2018

Table 3.57. CropWatch‐estimated Wheat production for Kazakhstan in 2018 (thousand tons)