Myanmar maize is distributed mainly in the Hills region and rice is planted across the whole country. The reporting period covers the entire growing season and early harvesting season of main rice and the early sowing season of wheat and maize. Crop condition was generally below the average of the previous five years during July and August but became closer to average thereafter. The same pattern is observed nationwide and in the sub-regionally.

Compared to average, rainfall increased by 3%, while temperature (TEMP, -0.4°C) and radiation (RADPAR,-1%) both showed slight decreases. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) showed no change and the cropping intensity decreased by 3% compared to 5-year average. As a result, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) fell 3%.

Cropland across the whole country displayed poor conditions throughout the period. In the central region (parts of Magwe and Mandalay) and Ayeyarwady NDVI was 0.1 units below average during July to August, but recovered to average in late September and late October. Other regions of Myanmar recorded similar patterns but departed from average by a larger extent in July and August. The abnormal phenomenon of apparent extremely poor crop condition may be related with cloud contamination of the satellite imagery, as the maximum VCI map generally shows normal situation throughout the country, with some patches of low values occurring in central and coastal regions.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Myanmar. They are the Delta and the southern coast region, the Central plain, and the Hill region.

The Delta and the southern coast covers cropland of Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Mon, Tanintharyi and southern Bago, which show the best agroclimatic condition in comparison to to the two other sub-national regions. Rainfall, temperature and radiation were somewhat above the average (13%, 0.3℃ and 1%, respectively). 93% of the cropland of the sub-national region was made use of. The VCIx value was 0.90. However, the crop condition shown by NDVI profile was as bad as the whole country.

The Hills region covers the east, west and north provinces of Myanmar, including Shan, Kachin, Sagaing, Chin and Rakhing. Maize is the major crop in the Hills and was sowed during the monitoring period. Agroclimatic indicators were close to the national values. Rainfall was up by 2% while temperature and radiation were down by -0.5℃ and -3%. Almost the whole cropland was cultivated according to the CALF value of 98%. According to the NDVI development graphs, crop condition was largely below the average in July and August, while the VCIx value is rather high at 0.95.

The Central plain covers Magwe, Mandalay and northern Bago, where the main crops grow, showed the worst CWAI values among the sub-national regions. Rainfall and temperature were both below the average by 5% and 0.6℃ respectively. The CALF value was 97% and VCIx value was 0.93. The crop condition according to NDVI profile was similar with the whole country.

On the whole, crop condition for Myanmar was below average. CropWatch put the production of maize and rice during 2018 slightly below those of 2017.

Figure 3.21. Myanmar cropcondition, July - October 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to5YA

(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI(Coastal region (left) and Central plain (right))

(g) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI (Hillregion)

Table 3.50. Myanmar agroclimaticindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, July - October 2018

Table 3.51. Myanmar agronomic indicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July- October 2018

Table 3.52. CropWatch-estimated maizeand rice production for Myanmar in 2018 (thousand tons)