Nigeria                             

In Nigeria the main season harvest normally starts in September/October across the country. In the southern part of the country the maize harvest takes place during July-august and the Northern part in August -September. Irrigated rice is harvested from October, while rainfed rice harvest occurs from August- October. The monitoring period is also planting time for the second maize.

At the national level, RAIN was above average (RAIN, +19%) with a decrease of temperature (TEMP,-0.7%) and BIOMSS below average by -5%. The radiation and fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased (RADAR, 7% and CALF, 1%) respectively.  According to the national NDVI profiles, the crop condition was below the recent five years average.

As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, about 29.4% of the total cropped area was above average during the entire monitoring period, with 40.5% being just slightly below average. Together, they correspond approximately to the Soudano-Sahelian zone and eastern Guinean savanna. Low values in September in 8.7% of cropland correspond to floods described in the section on disasters. At the national level the  maximum VCIx was 0.92, while  Most of Borno, eastern Yobe and northern Adamawa recorded favorably high VCIx, between 0.8 and 1.0. The cropping intensity rose  by 16%. In general the condition was favorable for maize prodution. The 2018 prodution of maize and rice is expected to increase by 5.3 % and 0.2 %, respectively, compared with 2017. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological regions, from north to south and following the precipitation gradient: the Sudano- Sahelian zone, Guinean savanna, Derived savanna and the humid forest zone.

In the Sudano-Sahelian zone the agroclimatic indicators show above average rainfall (RAIN+22%), a drop in temperature (TEMP -0.7ºC) and an increase in radiation (RADAR 4%). BIOMSS fell 9%. The crop condition development curve based on NDVI was close to the average pattern. The CALF value of 84% corresponds to an increment of 1% above the five-year average and VCIx reached 0.90. The indicators concur to describe crop condition as favourable.

The Guinean savanna also had a NDVI profile that was below the five years average. Even though the region received 12 % above average rainfall, the biomass potential was below average (BIOMASS -6%). Radiation increased (RADAR +7%) and CALF was stable.The temperature was 0.8 % lower than its average of the last five years. Based mostly on the high VCIx of 0.91 crop condition is assessed as favorable in the AEZ.

In the Derived savanna zone  the  temperature fell slightly below average (TEMP -0.7ºC)  while rainfall and radiation increased (RAIN, +16% and RADAR, +7%).  Even though the rainfall increased the biomass production potential dropped by 2%. CALF was stable and the maximum VCI value of 94%. In spite of low NDVI values, the overall outlook of the zone is for favourable crop production. 

The humid forest zone received 1483 mm of rains, which is +26% above average; the temperature was below average (-0.4°C) abd RADPAR was 8% above average. BIOMSS was stable compared to its five-year average. The NDVI profile for the region also shows low values throughout the crop growing period. CALF increased by 3%. and  recorded a maximum VCIx  value of  0.91. NDVI remained poor (below five-year average) from July to end of August, after which it improved in mid of September and exceeded the five-year average, and dropped in October. Altogether, even though the crop conditions development graph during the reported period was highly variable, crop condition was favorable.

                                Figure 3.26. Nigeria 's crop condition, July- October  2018

                                                          (a). Phenology of major crops

                          (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (c) Maximum VCI

图.X (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

           (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                     (e) NDVI profiles

                    (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (  Derived savanna zone region  (g)  Guinean savanna region ))

                     (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDV(Soudano‐sahelian region (i) Humid forest zone region ))

Table 3.82. Nigeria’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July ‐ October 2018

Table 3.83. Nigeria’s agronomic indicators by sub‐nationalregions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July ‐ October 2018

Table 3.84. CropWatch‐estimated maize and Rice production for Nigeria in 2018 (thousands tons)