This monitoring period covers the growing and harvesting stages of  maize and rice, as well as the sowing of winter barley and wheat. Crop condition was generally unfavorable from July to October. Compared with average, RAIN and TEMP were below average(-12% and -0.6°C respectively), while RADPAR showed a small increase (+1%). BIOMSS increased just by 2% compared to the recent five-year average. The national average of VCIx (0.57) was above average, the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased a significant 8%, and cropping intensity decreased by 6% compared to average.

As shown by the crop condition development graph on the national level, crops condition stayed below average over this period. According to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, close to 100% of the cropped areas were below average throughout the period, while 36.5% was just close to average in late August and late September.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indus basin, the Northern highlands, and the Northern Punjab region.

In the Lower Indus basin, RAIN was greatly below average of 34% and so was TEMP (-0.5°C). RADPAR was above average by 2% to the extent that the estimated BIOMSS departure of 4% compared to the five-year average is probably optimistic, even considering that the vast majority of crops is irrigated. Crop condition development graph as seen from NDVI was markedly below average during the period. The CALF of 50% (-12% over 2017) and a VCIx of 0.63 also indicate poor crop condition. Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as very poor. 

RAIN in the northern highland region was 4% above average. RADPAR and TEMP were low compared to average (-1% and -0.7°C respectively). Accordingly, BIOMSS dropped 6% below average. The region also achieved a low CALF of 51%, large parts in the region show VCIx values below 0.8. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI was always below average.  Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as below average.

Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan, received insufficient RAIN (28% of below average) over the reporting period.TEMP was below average as well (-0.8°C), while the RADPAR departure was +1%. The resulting BIOMSS therefore fell 13% below the recent five-year average. The area had a poor CALF of 75% (5% below 2017) and a VCIx of 0.81. Crop condition assessed through NDVI followed the low average profile. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is deemed to be greatly below average.

In summary, CropWatch assesses the production of the maize and rice as poor, while wheat underwent only a small decrease compared with 2017.

Figure 3.23. Pakistan crop condition, July - October 2018

 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus River Basin)

 (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland (left) Northern Punjab (right)) 

Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July - October 2018

  Table 3.57. Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July - October 2018

 Table 3.58. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice and wheat production for Pakistan in 2018 (thousand tons)