In the Philippines, harvesting of the main season crop is currently underway. According to the NDVI profiles for the country, crops generally showed unfavorable condition during the current monitoring period. Nationwide, precipitation (RAIN) presents a negative departure of 11% compared with average, accompanied by above average radiation (+3%) and temperature (+0.7°C). The rainfall deficit resulted in BIOMSS being 15% below average.

However, based on the VCIx indicator, which mostly exceeded 0.80, favorable crop condition prevailed. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) nation-wide was almost 100%. Considering the spatial patterns of NDVI profiles, 52.1% of the cropped area experienced average conditions,  but other areas display different profiles including: （1）13.1% of the cropped area experienced below average conditions in July, after which it returned to average. It is scattered in Philippines; (2) 18.4% of the cropped area experienced fluctuating conditions (average-below average) from July to August, then returned to average. It is mainly distributed in the north of Philippines; (3) 16.5% of the cropped area experienced below average conditions in July before returning  to average. It is mainly distributed in the central Philippines.

The NDVI profiles indicate unfavorable crop condition. Moreover, the rain anomaly is negative comparing to the 15-year average (RAIN, -11%). Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice in the country are expected to be below average. Compared with the 2017 season CropWatch estimates drops in maize  and rice outputs (7,419 ktons, -2.7%  ; 19,713 ktons, -2.4%, respectively).

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Lowlands region, the Hills region, and the Forest region.

The Lowlands region (northern islands) experienced below average rainfall (RAIN -7%) and radiation (RADPAR -1%), and mildly above average temperature (TEMP 0.4°C). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS was -14% compared to the average. Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice are expected to be below average.

The Hilly region (Islands of Bohol, Sebu and Negros) recorded the largest negative rainfall departure (RAIN, -32%), well above average radiation (RADPAR +10%), and heatwave temperature (TEMP +2.2°C). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS is 14% below compared to the average for the period and region. Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice are expected to be below average.

The Forest region (mostly southern and western islands)  experienced a rainfall deficit (RAIN -15%), above average temperature (TEMP+0.8°C) and radiation (RADPAR +6%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS was down 16% below average. Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice are expected to be below average as well.  

The NDVI-based Crop condition development graphs indicate below average conditions over the monitoring period. Crop prospects are generally below average due to rainfall deficit.

Figure 3.24.Philippines crop condition, July - October 2018 

(a) Phenology of major crops  

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Lowlands region (left) and Hills region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Forest Region)

Table 3.59. Philippines agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2018 

3.60. Philippines agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2018

Table 3.61. CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Philippines in 2018 (thousand tons)