The monitoring period covers winter and spring wheat harvests in August; maize matures later and is harvested in October. Winter wheat was sowed from September to October.

Warm and sunny weather affected Poland during the monitoring  period (TEMP, +1.0°C; RADPAR, +8%) but RAIN was close to average. The potential biomass (BIOMSS) decreased 6% below the 5YA due to dry-hot condition. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was very close to 100%.

As shown in the NDVI crop condition development graphs, the NDVI in Poland was below average when compared to the previous 2017-18 season and the last five years, resulting in a low VCIx 0.79.  Values of VCIx lower than 0.8 were mainly distributed in north and west of the country. Overall, the crop condition was below average.

Regional analysis

Four characteristic Agro-Ecological zones identified for Poland including the Central rye and potatoes area, Northern oats and potatoes area, Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area, and Southern wheat and sugarbeet area.

In the Central rye and potatoes area, the crop condition was below the average of the  last 5 years due to high temperature (TEMP +1.0°C), which accounts for the low VCIx (0.79) despite the higher rainfall (RAIN +6%).

The Northern oats and potatoes area recorded low rainfall (RAIN down 9% compared to average) and high temperature (TEMP +1.1°C), leading to slightly decreased biomass (BIOMSS -2%) compared to the five-year average. The area has a relative high VCIx (0.81).

The Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area experienced the driest weather condition in the country (RAIN -11%) and the lowest VCIx. Both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+1.2°C and +10%).

In the Southern wheat and sugarbeet area crop conditions was slightly below the average of last five years, while RAIN was virtually average (1% below average) with warm TEMP (+0.9°C compared with average). The relatively average conditions resulted in the highest VCIx (0.83) in the country.

Based on the prevailing conditions in the four AEZs, CropWatch puts the 2018 wheat production estimate 7.4% below the 2017 output.

Figure 3.25a. Poland phenology of major crops

Figure 3.25b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July to October 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.25c. Poland maximum VCI 

Figure 3.25d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.25f. Central rye and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25g. Northern oats and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25h. Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25i. Southern wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.61. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region,current season's values and departure from 15YA, July to October 2018

Table 3.62. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July to October 2018

Table 3.63. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Poland in 2018 (thousands tons)