This report desribes the crop condition in Russia in the growing season of 2018 at national level. 

According to the phenology calendar (Figure 1), the growing period for maize stretched from April to September with wide sowing window from April to July. The spring wheat is grown from May to September. Phenology stages of winter wheat changed continuously throughout the whole year with wide sowing window  from August to October and harvesting time in July.

Generally the weather conditions are favorable but was not uniformly distributed over all cultivated land in Russia, with the crop condition close but slight below average compared to the same period in the previous five years. According to the CropWatch production estimation, maize output dropped 0.4% below 2017 values and wheat production fell -10.3%. 

During the most part of 2018 rainfall was lower than the average rate. The lowest values of rainfall  were observed  from June to the first half of July. The temperature was mainly close to the 15 year average, except for the May and June when it dropped below the average line. The shortage of rainfall overlapped with the drop in temperature values at the end of the maize sowing season so it could impact crop production. However the reduction in biomass accumulation was registered only in a few oblasts and did not exceed 6 % (Table A.9). Additionally, NDVI generally followed the average pattern demonstrating only a small decrease in June and July comparing to the 5 year average. 

NDVI departure profiles showed spatial and temporal variability of crop conditions during 2018 growing season. About 21 % of croplands were constantly below the average. These areas correspond to eastern part of Central area and southern part of Volga region along the southern border with Kazakhstan. It can be explained by the  drop in rainfall comparing to 15YA.

According to the behavior of NDVI departure profiles, 9.4 % of the cropland area belong to winter crop region (the Caucasus). Most of Central region NAVI profile (18.7 % of cropland area) was below the average with increase in June. Shortage of rainfall combined with high temperature resulted in negative NDVI departure in July. Croplands of Southern Urals and Sourthern Siberia, along the west bank of the Volga river (northeastern part of the Caucasus and small area in southwestern part of Volga region) and northwestern part of Volga region (50.9 %) were below the average most part of the year with excess over the average in June and July (28.4 %) or after July (22.5).VCIx for the main part of croplands was close to average with lower value in northern part of The Caucasus region and southern part of Volga region.

Regional analysis

In the Caucasus, Central Economic, Southern Urals and Volga regions biomass was above the average by 12 %, 4 %, 5 %, 11 % respectively due to generally sufficient supply. The rainfall was close to average or higher (10 % for Southern Urals), VCIx was above 0.8.

The increase in the biomass for the Caucasus region despite the reduction in cropped arable land fraction (by 17.5 %), the region lowest VCIx (0.66) and below average NDVI profile can be possibly explained by the decreased CALF.

Kaliningrad oblast showed the reduction in biomass (8 %) which is attributed to the decrease in rainfall (16 %) and increase in temperature comparing to 15YA (1.6 %) what reflected in NDVI profile. NDVI values were below the 5 year average during the 2018.

The highest drop of biomass was registered for Northwest region including Novgorod (10%). In May, July and August there was a decrease in rainfall and rise in temperature (above 5 year average and maximum), what reflected in the reduction of NDVI value (comparing to 5 year average) which started in June. NDVI stayed below the average for the rest of the growing season.

In Southern Siberian and Subarctic regions the similar situation is observed. NDVI was close to 5 year average. At the same time the biomass decreased (5 and 8 % respectively), what can be caused by siginificant rise in rainfall (above 16 %).

Figure.1 Russia phenology of major crops

Figure 2. Russia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum.

Figure 3. Russia maximum VCI for July-October 2018 by pixel

Figure 4. Russia spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure.5 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Kaliningrad Oblast

Figure.6 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_The Caucasus

Figure.7 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Volga Basin

Figure.8 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central Economic Region

Figure.9 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern Urals

Figure.10 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern Siberian area

Figure.11 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northwest region including Novgorod

Table 1. Russia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2018

Table 2. Russia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2018

Table 3. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for Russia in 2018 (thousand tons)