The monitoring period covers the harvest of maize in September and the complete cycle of the main rice crop (July to October). Nationwide, the accumulated rainfall and radiation increased 1% and 3%, respectively, while the temperature decreased 0.3℃, which led to a the production potential (BIOMSS) decreasing 5%. The crop condition shown in the NDVI development graph is unfavorable. As shown in the VICx map, crop condition was unfavorable in parts of the  Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands, the Single-cropped rice north-eastern region, the east of the  Western and southern hill areas and some patches located in the northeast of South-eastern horticulture area. According to the NDVI profiles, the crop condition was above average in June and deteriorated below average after July. 

Regional analysis

The regional analysis below focuses on agro-ecological zones, which are defined mostly by the rice cultivation typology. They include the Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands (115), South-eastern horticulture area (116), Western and southern hill areas (117) and the Single-cropped rice north-eastern region (118). The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

Agroclimatic indices for the the Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands indicates that the temperature (TEMP,-0.5℃) and rainfall (RAIN -10%) were below average, while radiation was slightly above average (RADPAR ,+2%), resulting in the biomass production potential slightly decreasing below average in this region (BIOMSS ,-8%). The NDVI development graph shows that crop condition was unfavorable. This is confirmed by the VCIx map and applies particularly to Phitsanulok, Phichit, Phetchabun Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani and Suphanburi. Overall, the situation was below average.

In the South-eastern horticulture area, radiation was slightly above average (RADPAR ,+2%), while temperature (TEMP,-0.4℃) and rainfall (RAIN -8%) were below. The VCIx map, NDVI development graph, and BIOMSS indicators (-4%) all lead to the conclusion that crop condition was below average, especially some patches shown in the shown in VICx map and located in Chachoengsao and Phachinburi provinces.

The Western and southern hill areas area was the only agro-ecological region in Thailand that recorded the a small increase of temperature (TEMP +0.5°C), while the radiation (RADPAR) increased 5% and accumulated rainfall (RAIN) decreased -5% compared with average. According to NDVI development graph and BIOMSS indicators (-7%), the crop condition was below average. 

Indicators for the  Single-cropped rice north-eastern region follow the same patterns as those for the country as a whole: the accumulated rainfall (RAIN +14%) and radiation (RADPAR +2%) were above average, and the temperature was below average (TEMP -0.5°C) leading to drop in production potential (BIOMSS, -2%). The VCIx map and NDVI development graph hint at the conclusion that crop condition was slightly below average, which applies particularly to Chaiyaphum, Nakhon Ratchasima and Khon Kaen provinces. 

Considering that most arable land was cropped in Thailand during the season, CropWatch anticipates that the production of maize and rice will decrease by -3.9% and -0.5% respectively.

Figure 3.28a. Thailand phenology of major crops

Figure 3.28b. Thailand national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.28c. Thailand maximum VCI for July-October 2018 by pixel

Figure 3.28d. Thailand spatial NDVIpatterns up to October 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.28f.Double_triple-cropped rice area (Thailand) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.28g. Mountains area(Thailand)crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.28h. Horticulture area(Thailand) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.28i. Single-cropped rice area (Thailand) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 70. July-October 2018 agro-climaticindicators by agro-ecological region, current season values and departure from15YA

 Table 71. July-October 2018 agronomicindicators by by agro-ecological region, current season values and departurefrom 5YA

 Table 72. CropWatch estimatedmaize,rice, wheat and soybean production for 2018 (thousands tons)