In South Africa and during the monitoring period (July-October,2018), the winter wheat was growing and rice, maize and soybean were sown.  The average rainfall (RAIN) was 94 mm, 14% below the 15YA, and the mean temperature (TEMP) was exactly average (15.2°C). The estimated RADPAR was 1158 MJ/m2 with an increase of 4% above the average. At  375 gDM/m2, BIOMSS was 3% below the average. 

The nationwide NDVI-based crop development graph shows favorable conditions above or near the  recent five years maximum. The map of spatial NDVI patterns shows that 4.7% of total cropped area, mostly located in western Cape province, was obviously below the average, while 47.7% of total cropped area, mostly in Limpopo and Gauteng provinces (two maize areas), was slightly below average. These areas also have  low (< 0.5) or moderate (0.5 – 0.8) VCIx values. Overall, the VCIx value estimated for whole country was 0.8.

According to CropWatch analyses covering the July-October 2018 period, crop condition is currently favorable, especially for wheat production, which is expected to increase by 22.5% above the 2017 output.  2018 maize production is put 6.9% below last year's value.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro-ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in South-Africa: The Humid Cape Fold mountains,the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, and the Mediterranean zone.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the average rainfall (RAIN) was 161 mm, 1% below the average, while at 16 °C the average temperature was 0.6°C above the average. The estimated RADPAR was 6% above the average, while the BIOMSS was 3% below the average.The NDVI-based crop conditions graph show values that are above the 5 years average. The CALF was 0.8 or 13% above the average, and the VCI value for the whole zone was the highest among the other zones at 0.9.

In the Mediterranean zone, the average rainfall (RAIN) was just 64 mm, 54% below the average, leading to a 17% reduction in estimated BIOMSS compared to the average. The TEMP was 13°C, 0.8 °C above the average, and the estimated RADPAR was 4% above the average. Although the NDVI-based crop conditions graph shows that the conditions were above or at the 5 years average conditions during the reporting period, the maximum VCI for whole zone was low (0.4). The CALF was 0.9, 2% above the average.

In Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, the rainfall (RAIN) was 81mm, 16% below the average, and the TEMP was 15.3°C, 0.2°C below the average. The estimated RADPAR was 4% above the average, while the BIOMSS was 2% below the average. The CALF was only 0.1 (10% of cropland cultivated), 25% above the average. The maximum VCI was 0.8. The NDVI-based crop conditions graph showis crop condition above or at 5-year average.

                                                                                   (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c) MaximumVCI 

          (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                              (e) NDVI profile

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Humid Cape Fold Mountains (left) and Mediterranean zone (right))

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize zone.

Table 3.101. South Africa’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and  departure from 15YA, July-October 2018.

Table 3.102. South Africa’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2018.

Table 3.103. CropWatch-estimated maize and wheat production for South Africa in 2018 (thousand tons).