The monitoring period covers the growing and harvesting stage of wheat and other cereals in Mongolia. During the reporting period, the crop condition in the country was favorable. The national average VCIx was 0.93 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 2% compared to the five-year average. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was above average (+86%), TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-0.2°C and -4%). The combination of factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+12%) compared to average. The crop intensity decreased 3% compared to the five-year average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was above average in late August and September , below average in late July and October and close to average in early July. NDVI cluster graphs and profiles show that 76.1% of arable lands were consistently above average from late July to late August, mostly in Khentii, Selenge, Tuv and patches in Bulgan, Hovsgol, Arkhangai and eastern part of Dornod provinces.

Overall, the outcome of the agricultural season is promising. CropWatch expects an increase of 9.4% in wheat production compared with last year, with area increasing just 1.3%.

Regional analysis

 In the Khangai Khuvsgul region, NDVI was above the five‐year average in August,  about average in September, and below average in July and from late September to October. RAIN was above average (+85%) and TEMP and RADPAR were both below (-0.3°C and ‐3%). The combination of the factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+4%) compared to the five‐year average.The maximum VCI index was 0.90, while the cropped area increased by 1% compared to the five‐year average. Overall crop prospects are favorable.

Crop condition was above the five years average in July and from August to September in the Selenge‐Onon region. Accumulated rainfall and biomass were above average (RAIN 95% and 17%) and TEMP was slightly below average (-0.3°C). The RADPAR index decreased by 5% compared to average. The maximum VCI index was 0.95, while the cropped arable land increased by 2%. Overall crop prospects are favorable.

The Central and Eastern Steppe Region, According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was below the five year average in July and from late September to October. However, NDVI was close to the five year maximum from August to September. RAIN was above average (+49%), while RADPAR was below (‐6%). BIOMSS was up 11%, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 3% compared to the five‐year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.90. In general, overall outcome for the crops is favorable.

(a). Phenology of major crops  

  (b) Crop condition development graph based onNDVI      (c) Maximum VCI

    (d) Spatial NDVI patternscompared to 5YA (left)                (e)NDVI profiles (right)

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Hangai Khuvsgul Region (left) (g) Selenge‐Onon Region (right))

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central and Eastern Steppe Region (left) (g) Altai Region (right))

Table 3.76. Mongolia agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from15YA, July - October 2018

Table 3.77. Mongolia agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA,July - October 2018