The July-October 2018 monitoring period coincides with land preparation for the 2018/2019 agricultural campaign. In the southern region of the country, sowing of rice and maize has started and will last to the end of December.

During the monitoring period, the country recorded a significant increase in precipitation over average (RAIN +74%), while the temperature decreased in 0.3ºC and sunshine recorded an increase of 3%. The favorable weather had a positive influence on crops to the extent that Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) registered a gain of about 30% over the average of the last five years. A decrease of about 2% was recorded in the cropping intensity. The maximum VCIx registered in this period was 0.89. The significant positive departure of RAIN from 15YA will provide favorable soil moisture which will benefit the crops in the coming season.

The NDVI development graph indicates that, except for mid-July, the crop condition was favorable throughout the monitoring period. Exceptionally high VCIx values above 1 were observed in the provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Cable, Sofala, Inhambane and Gaza. Tete, Maputo and some areas of Gaza have relatively low values of VCIx. Based on spatial NDVI patterns crop condition was better than average in about 49.7% of the country. 

Regional Analysis

The regional analysis focuses on ten agroecological zones (AEZ), namely - in random order - Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza, Coastal areas and South of Rio Save, North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane, Central medium altitude areas, Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia, Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete, North Coastal areas, High altitude areas, Mid-altitude areas and  Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado

Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators showed a variety of patterns. RAIN exceeded average in the Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete (+136%), High-altitude areas (+134%), and Mid-altitudes areas (+103%). Rainfall was below average in North and Central Gaza, Western Inhambane, Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza and the Northern Hinterland of Cabo Delegado (-11% to -56%). Temperature increase of about 1.4ºC was verified in the Coastal areas of Save. The Northern Hinterland of Cabo Delegado registered the largest RADPAR increase (+6%.)

Below average agronomic conditions were observed in the Northern and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane (BIOMASS -58%), Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza (BIOMASS -46%), as well as Central Medium altitudes areas (BIOMASS -9%). Slight changes of CALF were recorded in all the agro-ecological regions. Decreases occurred  in the Dry areas of Zambézia and Sofala (-3.7%), Northern and central Gaza and Western Inhambane (-4.3%) and Northern Hinterland of Cabo Delegado (-2.8%). Among all agro-ecological regions, the largest increase on CALF was observed in the High Altitude areas (+9%). High values of maximum VCIx were registered in almost all the Agroecological regions except in North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane (0.61) and the Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete (0.54)

NDVI development graphs show that: (1) In the Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza, the crop conditions were unfavorable during mid-July, beginning of August as well as at the end of September; (2) except for July, favorable crop condition was verified during the entire monitoring period in Coastal areas and South of Save, Central Medium Altitude Areas, Low Altitude Areas of Sofala and Zambezia, Mid-altitude areas, as well as North Coastal Areas; (3) poor crop condition prevailed during the entire monitoring period in the Central Gaza and Western Inhambane AEZ, where decreases in Rainfall and Biomass occurred); (4) about average crop condition was observed in the Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete; (5) in the High-Altitude Areas, the crop condition was poor from July to the end of September, recovering at the beginning of October; (6) the Northern Hinterland of Cabo Delegado enjoyed favorable crop condition during most of the monitoring period.  

Figure 3.33. Mozambique’s crop condition, July‐October 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza

(g)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Coastal areas and South of Save

(e)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane

(f)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central medium altitude areas

(g)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI North Coastal areas

(j)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Mid-altitude areas

(k)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI High altitude areas

(l)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado

Table 3.79. Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April ‐July 2018

Table 3.80. Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April ‐July 2018

Table 3.81. CropWatch‐estimated Maize production for Mozambique in 2018 (thousand tons)