Winter wheat was harvested in July and sown in October at the end of this monitoring period for the 2018-19 season. Generally, according to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was better than during 2017 and mostly above the 5YA before September. Rainfall (371 mm) was well above the average (+37%), the temperature (21°C) and RADPAR (1157 MJ/m²) were about average. CALF and BIOMSS increased (+8% and +7% above 5YA, respectively) and VCIx was high (0.90). Overall crop condition in the country is satisfactory.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy, among which three are relevant for crops cultivation. These four regions are Eastern Italy, Northern Italy, Southern Italy and Western Italy. 

In Eastern Italy, with the exception of high RAIN (+15%), TEMP (+0.6°C) and RADPAR (+3%), overall condition of wheat was about average even if BIOMSS decreased by 6% compared with the 5YA. VCIx reached 0.83 CALF was low at 0.89.  The crop development graph based on NDVI exceeded 2017 values and even 5YA in July and August, but other periods had low values e.g. late September. Below average output is expected.

Northern Italy recorded abundant rainfall, above-average temperature and sunshine: RAIN +53%; TEMP  +0.8°C, RADPAR +3%. Compared against 5YA, BIOMSS is up 1%. VCIx was at 0.89 and CALF at 0.99 indicates all land was cropped. The NDVI development graph mostly exceeded 2017 values and reached the 5YA in July. Above average output is expected.

In Southern Italy, due to abundant precipitation (RAIN +67%), average TEMP (+0.6C) and low RADPAR (-3%), BIOMSS increased by 41% compared with the averages (5YA). VCIx was exceptional (1.24) but CALF was low at 0.79. The NDVI condition development graph indicates  above 5Y maximum values from August to September. Generally, above average output is expected.

The values of  RADPAR (-1%), TEMP (0.6°C), VCIx (0.89) and CALF (0.93) in Western Italy are almost identical with those in Southern country but BIOMSS is up "only" 20% due to the "smaller" precipitation excess of +43%.  The NDVI development graphshows conditions close to the 5Y maximum. CropWatch expects above average production. 

Crop prospects are generally excellent due to satisfactory rainfall. The 2018-19 winter wheat season is starting under favourable conditions.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, April-July 2018

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops 

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the July-October 2018 period to the previous season and the five-yearaverage (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.24c. Italy maximum VCI for July-October 2018 by pixel

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2018 according to local croppingpatterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure3.24f. Eastern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24g. Northern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24h. Southern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24i. Western Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.45  Italy agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, currentseason values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.46  Italy agronomicindicators by sub-national regions , current season values and departure from5YA, July-October 2018

Table 3.47 CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Italy in 2018 (thousands tons)