Trade prospects for major crops in China for 2018

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Maize

According to the model forecast, maize imports will increase by 10.5% in China in 2018, but exports will decrease by 16.4%. Chinese maize output has increased, but the price of maize is up because of the strong demand. China intends to reduce the maize planted area, but the production still retains its growth with decreasing imports.

Rice

According to the model forecast, rice imports and exports will increase by 12.6% and 13.5% respectively in 2018. The rice supply and demand stay balanced globally. Domestic markets are in a weak condition in which rice price has a trend of continuous weakening. The rice import in 2018 will remain stable due to the lack of price advantage. Exports will remain at a low growth rate.

Wheat

According to the model forecast, wheat imports will increase by 8.6%, while exports will decrease by 6.7%. According to remote sensing estimates, global wheat production fell marginally, but the inventory consumption ratio is still at a high level. Wheat output decreased slightly in China. The price gap between home and abroad will expand further, and imports of wheat are expected to increase in 2018.

Soybean

Soybean imports and exports will decrease by 6.5% and 2.3%, respectively. At present, the global soybean supply is sufficient. The international price of soybean is weak due to the influence of Sino-US trade friction. The soybean production has increased in china, while the price gap at home and abroad has narrowed. China’s soybean imports will be reduced further.

Figure 4.18. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2018 compared to those for 2017(%)