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CropWatch bulletin

The current reporting period was characterized mainly by CentralAmerican droughts, south-Asian floods, and Indonesian earthquakes and tsunami. Tropical cyclone activity was relatively calm except for typhoon Mangkut in the Philippines and two North American hurricanes (Florence and Michael), which received broad media coverage.

2. Disasters by categories

2.1 Earthquakes

Relatively minor earthquakes were reported from Trinidad and Tobago (21 and 22 August, most considerable magnitude 6.9), causing little damage and no casualties. On 6 September, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake struck the island of Hokkaido in Japan, and two days later the province of Davao Oriental on Mindanao Island in the Philippines experienced several tremors up to a magnitude of 6.4. Around 6 October, several shocks (magnitude 5.9) killed 17people in Haiti, with several hundreds requiring medical assistance.

Indonesia was, however, the country most dramatically affected by earthquakes in two separate events between August and October 2018. Several earthquakes hit Lombok – one of the Lesser Sunda Islands - between 29 July and9 August (reaching magnitude 7.0 on 5 August). Several thousand people were injured, and about 300 died. Close to 70 thousand houses were damaged or destroyed, and 300 thousand islanders were displaced and needed food, water, shelter, and health assistance. Humanitarian access was made difficult by the damage to the transportation infrastructure. About a month later, several strong earthquakes destroyed Central Sulawesi Province, the strongest at magnitude 7.4 on 28 September.

The resulting tsunami along the coast of Palu (capital of Sulawesi) destroyed buildings up to 400 m from the shore. On 1 November, up to1.2 million people had been affected: 210000 people lost their homes, and half of them suffered food shortages. Just under 2100 are confirmed dead, and more than 1000 went missing.70000 houses were damaged, and 15000 were destroyed. Due to the destruction of roads, power lines and communications infrastructure the island was cut off from the outside world and Assistance was slow to set in and difficult to coordinate. Ten thousand hectares of agricultural land (mostly rice and maize)have been affected, together with irrigation infrastructure, but Sulawesi is also one of the major producers of coffee in Indonesia, and the leading exporter of cocoa (75% of national output). Although plantations did not suffer directly, disrupted transportation, lost farming tools, and seeds damaged and lost fishing vessels, and displaced labor will presumably impact the agricultural sector for several years.

2.2 Floods

Floods are reported from several areas in Africa, affecting about 50 thousand people in Sudan at the end of July, and leading to cattle loss [8]. The most severe floods in Africa during the reporting period occurred in Nigeria [9] at the end of September. They concerned the two major rivers in the country, the Benue and Niger (Figure D1).

Figure D1: States most affected by floods in Nigeria during September 2018. Source: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/43E0/production/_103467371_nigeria_floods_640-nc-2.png.

In South America [10], early September flash floods caused havoc for 70 thousand people in Mexico, mostly in northern-central states. In October, 26,000 Colombians suffered floods in the departments of Vichada andGuainía due to heavy rainfall over the previous two months. Heavy rains also caused widespread flooding affecting close to 65 thousand people in the department of La Guajira. The most severely hit area was Uribia municipality. Urgent food, shelter, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) had to be provided. October also witnessed floods in Costa Rica (about 200 thousand people impacted) and El Salvador but mainly in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua where early estimates of losses in the agricultural sector reached the US $100 million. The abundant precipitation also touched the Caribbean where 150 thousand people suffered in Trinidad and Tobago.

Floods are reported in Western Europe at the end of October. InAsia, they occurred mainly as two separate events in Myanmar [11], in Laos [12]and India, especially in Kerala State [13].

Figure D2: Kerala floods. Left, Kerala has been dealing with unprecedented floods following torrential rains that also triggered landslides, claiming over 300 lives. Source: https://cdn.dnaindia.com/sites/default/files/styles/full/public/2018/08/19/720123-kerala-flood.jpg.Right, the number of those displaced in the torrential rains in Kerala was[...] put at [724 thousand]. Source: https://c.ndtvimg.com/q7hqnhi_kerala-floods_625x300_19_August_18.jpg

Based on data from both the Department of Disaster Management(DDM) and the Myanmar Red Cross, a total of 9 provinces were hit by floods at the end of July and early August, especially the southern-central region of Bago, Tanintharyi, Kayin and Mon. 150 thousand people were affected and 17died. At the end of August, dam damage in Bago flooded 85 villages, to the extent that 80 thousand people had to be evacuated and 30 thousand hectares of crops were lost. On 7 August, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Lao PDRbriefed the international community and media on the flash floods in SanamxayDistrict of Attapu province. TheMinister described the situation as a national tragedy with 35 deaths, 99missing, and 6000 evacuated people.

Parts of India experienced exceptional monsoon conditions in July and August, reported being the most intense in 100 years (Figure D3). Massive floods ensued in Kerala, where 39 thousand people had to be evacuated in July and 60 thousand by mid-August. About half the population in Kerala depends on agriculture. According to ACAPS “crop damage has been significant and many agricultural workers will likely be in need of long-term livelihoods assistance.” About 40% of Plantations (including coffee) are affected with an expected loss that may reach US$ 100 millions. Tea, rubber, cardamom (50%loss), and black pepper are also affected. According to the Indian Ministry ofHome Affairs, by 30 July, the floods affected 2232 villages, causing 131 deaths and the loss of 22 thousand Ha of cash crops and countless plantain trees, which are a major local staple. In other States, the same source lists 1304villages impacted in Assam, with 35 deaths and 16000 Ha of crops lost while West Bengal lost 48 thousand Ha of crops in 1378 villages (124 dead). Crop losses were more limited in Gujarat (213 villages, 53 dead), Maharashtra (170dead) and Uttar Pradesh (1 village, 94 dead).

In Kerala, intense precipitation continued into October to the extent that 280 thousand people had eventually to be evacuated in Kerala, while more than 500 lives were lost and 60000 Ha of crops were damaged. The total damage is estimated to exceed 3 billion US$. Other areas that were affected during the late monsoon include Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Nagaland, Odisha, and Punjab but especially Assam (41000 people evacuated) and Odisha (58000people evacuated). According to the National Emergency Response Centre (NERC)in the Ministry of Home Affairs, about 575 thousand hectares of crops were affected by floods, of which the majority (about 300 thousand) occurs in Karnataka.

2.3 Drought and heat waves

While drought, forest, and bushfires continue along the Pacific coast in Canada and the USA [14], California suffered it’s the largest fire in history with the destruction of 1858 km² of vegetation in the Mendocino forest complex. Heatwave and drought are also reported from south and south-west Europe and Korea DPR [15] in July-August. In the south and south-east of Madagascar 1.3 million people and five regions affected by rain shortfalls and failed harvests at the beginning of October. Around 400 thousand are in IPCemergency phase and close to 900 thousand are in the crisis phase. The situation is expected to last well into 2019.

Possibly, the most severe drought situation developed in CentralAmerica [16] starting in June and lasting into October. It affected southern Mexico (Chiapas), eastern Guatemala, eastern and north-western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, the east of El Salvador and north-western Costa Rica. Precipitation did not reach 50% of average and locally not even 25%. About 300thousand Ha of beans and maize were lost in Guatemala, Honduras, and ElSalvador. In El Salvador, this corresponds to a loss estimated between 270 and410 thousand tonnes of maize production. In Honduras, nationwide production drops were estimated at early August at 69% for maize and 73% for beans with losses more extensive than 80% in the Departments of Francisco Morazán, Choluteca, south of El Paraíso, Lempira and Intibucá. Much of the area subsequently suffered floods.

2.4 Cyclones

Of the eight cyclones and storms listed below [17], only Mangkutseverely impacted agricultural production. The others include:

• Soulik, 15-24August, 81 MUS$ damage in Japan, the two Korea, and China;

• Florence, 31 August- 17 September, about 17 billion US$ in the Caribbean and the USA;

• Michael, 7-12October, about 12 billion US$ in Central America, the Caribbean, and the eastern USA;

• Trami (also referred to as Paeng), 20 September - 1 October, 65 million US$ in Japan;

• Titli, 8-12 October,905 million US$ damage mostly in India (Odisha and Andhra Pradesh);

• Willa, 20-24October, 63 million US$ damage in Central America, Mexico, and USA (Texas);

• Yutu (or Rosita), 21 October - 3 November, 7.5 million US$ damage in the Northern Mariana Islands and the Philippines.

Figure D3: population affected by typhoon Mangkut in Luzon island. Modified from https://ahacentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/AHA-Situation_Update-no9-Typhoon-Mangkhut.pdf

Mangkut (also known as Omphong, Figure D4) developed between7-17 September and caused damage over 2.5 billion US$ in Vietnam, Laos, China and mostly in the Philippines (Luzon island). Mangkut was one of the strongest cyclones in the documented history of the Philippines. 2,150,000 people were affected, including 250 thousand displaced and 65 dead. Wind-speed reached 270km/h. According to OCHA, damage to rice, maize and vegetable crops in central and northern Luzon reaches USD 267 million, leading to some shortages of food and high prices. Damage to infrastructure was estimated to reach 131 millionUS$. 170 thousand farmers were impacted mostly in the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion (CAR), National Capital Region (NCR), Calabarzon and Mimaropa.

Main weblink sources

[1] https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/acaps_humanitarian_access_overview_august_2018_0.pdf

[2] https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/20181005_monthly_humanitarian_snapshot_eng.pdf

[3] http://www.cropwatch.com.cn/htm/en/files/20170805en.pdf

[4] https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/20181023%20ERC%20Remarks%20to%20SC%20on%20Yemen.pdf

[5] https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/tcd_viz_humanitariansituationoverview_20181019.pdf; https://lcb.unocha.org/#1

[6] https://lakechadberlin.de/wp-eb6f4-content/uploads/2018/09/ENG-001-CO-HOSTS-OUTCOME-STATEMENT-FINAL-2.pdf

[7] https://ocharoap.exposure.co/first-the-earth-shook; https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/20181001_acaps_start_briefing_note_earthquake_tsunami_indonesia.pdf; https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/20180809_acaps_start_briefing_note_lombok_earthquake_indonesia.pdf; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Sulawesi_earthquake_and_tsunami

[8] https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/20180817_sudan_floods_west_kordofan.pdf

[9] https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/20181002_acaps_briefing_note_nigeria_floods_update_ii.pdf; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/nema_flood_situation_report_2.09.2018_0.pdf; http://nema.gov.ng/documentations/NEMA_SitRep_27092018.pdf

[10] https://www.acaps.org/country/colombia; https://www.acaps.org/country/colombia/crisis-analysis#d-4506-Overview-; https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/ocha_central_america_floods_regional_12october_2018_eng_v2.pdf

[11] https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/aha-centre-flash-update-2-floods-myanmar-monsoon