Main season (Meher)crops were harvested at the end of 2014, while some “minor” coarse grains (such as oats and millets) will be mostly harvested in January. The condition of these main season crops was generally slightly below the average of the previous five years. Based on the NDVI profiles, the areas where conditions were unfavorable are identified as the southeastern SNPP and southwest Oromyia,together representing about 15% of Ethiopia’s cropland. Maximum VCI values are low in central Oromyia and in east Amhara, where NDVI values have been at least average throughout the reporting period. The discrepancy is not explained by rainfall (+15% compared with the recent reference period) nor temperature, PAR,or biomass accumulation potential, which were all average. On the other hand, the fraction of cropped arable land increased by 3%, while the average national VCIx amounts to 0.88, showing that the combination of cultivated area and slightly above-average yields has resulted in favorable crop condition.

Figure3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, October2014-January 2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (b) Maximum VCI

      (c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                     (d)  NDVI profiles