In China, the beginning of the reporting period for this bulletin—early October—is the major planting time of most winter crops including winter wheat and rapeseed, right after the harvesting of the autumn crops.

From October 2014 to January 2015, agro-climatic conditions in China were generally favorable (see figures 4.1 and 4.2). Specifically,average temperature was only 0.5°C above average, which is beneficial for winter wheat survival during winter. It should be highlighted that 14% above average rainfall combined with average PAR contributed a 10% above average potential biomass estimate. As indicated in table 4.1, the 2014-2015 winter was generally warm with temperature above average in all seven regions; the lowest increase (0.1°C) occurred in the Northeast region and the most significant one in Huanghuaihai (0.9°C). The Lower Yangtze region was the only area suffering from below average rainfall among the seven regions (RAIN, -28%). Frequent showers occurred in January in the center of Yunnan and northwest of Guangxi provinces, while inJiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and the north of Guangdong province, rainfall wasalways below average. Temperature dramatically fluctuated from October to Januarythroughout China; it was below average in mid-December and early November and averageor above average at other times during the monitoring period.

Cropped arable land fraction (CALF, figure 4.3) was near th recent five-year average. Huanghuaihai and the Loess region are the only tworegions where CALF was below the last five years’ average. In Inner Mongolia and the Northeast region, the indicator was 1% above average, while for the LowerYangtze region, South China, and Southwest China, cropped arable land was at thefive-year average level. As for major wheat producing provinces (12 provincescovering 85% of total wheat production in China), CALF was 1.5% above the previous year, indicating that the total cropped area of winter crops increased from the 2013-2014 winter season. Most of the un cropped arable land during this reporting period is located in northern and central Gansu, northern Shanxi andShaanxi, eastern Shandong, southern Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces. Uncultivated farmlands were either reserved for other crops to be planted later or unsuitable for winter crops due to the low temperature.

Maximum VCI (VCIx, figure 4.4) was distributed unevenly,resulting from complex climatic situations. High VCIx values occurred mostly inSouthwest China and eastern Shandong province. Low VCIx values were mainly located in the North China Plain. The low VCIx in those regions results from thedry weather from July to October 2014. At the regional scale, BIOMSS is above average, except for the Lower Yangtze and Northeast regions and correspond ingprovinces.

Figure 4.1. China spatial distribution ofrainfall profiles, October 2014-January 2015

Table 4.1. CropWatch agroclimaticand agronomic indicators for China, October 2014-January 2015, departure from5YA and 13YA

Note: Departures are expressed in relative terms(percentage) for all variables, except for temperature, for which absolutedeparture in degrees Celsius is given. Zero means no change from the averagevalue; Relative departures are calculated as (C-R)/R*100, with C=current valueand R=reference value, which is the five (5YA) or thirteen-year average (13YA)for the same period (October-January). VCI=Vegetation condition index.