Spring wheat was harvested from August and winter wheat was planted in August as well.
Rainfall amounted to 254 mm, 9% below average. Decreases were recorded in temperature (13.8℃，-0.4℃) while radiation was somewhat above average (RADPAR, 804MJ/m², +1.6%.) As a result of current agroclimatic condition, potential biomass decreased to 328 g DM/m2 , 7% below average. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 100%, i.e. average. Maximum vegetation index (VCIx) reached 0.9, which was a relative high value. However, winter wheat was just at sowing, so rainfall could have an impact on production, especially in south-western Belarus where the rainfall decreased more than the national average.
The NDVI development curve at the national level indicates that crop condition gradually recovered to close to 5-year average before September (values had been below the 5-year average from mid-August). However, 24.2% of cropped areas in North Belarus and South Belarus was always above of 5-YA level, in agreement with the the VCIx map. There was a sharp drop in NDVI profiles in most area in September, the reason for this may be that rain deficit conditions persisted after September where they affected the sowing and emergence of winter crops. According to the VCIx distribution map, VCIx was satisfactory in most cropped areas of the country (above 0.8), with most low values located in the western area.
Regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as North Belarus (159) with the Regions of Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev; Central Belarus (158) with the southern part of Grodno,Minsk and Mogilev, the north of Brest and Gomel and South-west Belarus (160) with the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.
North Belarus had normal rainfall (302 mm) and radiation (758MJ/m²) compared with average. No significant change occurred for temperature (12.9℃, -0.7℃). Potential biomass was down 12%. the CALF was 100% as the same to average. VCIx was satisfactory (0.92). Winter wheat may grow normally based on agro-climatic indicators in this area.
Central Belarus has a low rainfall (234 mm), 14% below average. The temperature was 14.4℃ (down 0.2℃). RADPAR reached 823 MJ/m2, up 2% compared to average. Weather conditions did not significantly affect the agronomic indicators, the CALF was average (100%), but the potential biomass decreased 4%. Winter wheat condition will need close monitoring.
South-west Belarus had agroclimatic conditions similar to those of the other two AEZs. Rainfall fell 28% compared with average. Radiation was 878 MJ/m2 (+5%). No significant change occurred for temperature (15.1℃, -0.1℃) and potential biomass (383 g DM/m2). The area also experienced high CALF (100%) and good VCIx (0.9). More rain is needed in this regions in the coming months to improve soil moisture and create favorable conditions for the winter wheat.
Figure 3.10. Belarus’s crop condition, July - October 2019
(a). Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall time series
(g) Temperature time series
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)
(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)
Table 3.11. Belarus agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2019.
|Region||Current (mm)||Departure from 15YA (%)||Current (°C)||Departure from 15YA (°C)||Current (MJ/m2)||Departure from 15YA (%)||Current (gDM/m2)||Departure from 5YA (%)|
|South-west Belarus ||179||-28||15.1||-0.1||878||5||383||0|
|Cropped arable land fraction||Cropping Intensity||Maximum VCI|
|Region||Current (%)||Departure from 5YA (%)||Current (%)||Departure from 5YA (%)||Current|