The monitoring period covers the harvest of winter wheat, the late growth and harvest of spring wheat, maize, rice and soybean and the early growth of winter wheat.
Nationwide, weather was somewhat cooler and slightly sunnier than average (TEMP 0.2°C down and RADPAR up 1%) but much wetter (RAIN 24% above average). Large differences were recorded among States, with the largest precipitation excesses affecting South Dakota (+127%) and North Dakota (+109%), with TEMP 2°C to 3°C below average and a marked drop in sunshine (-8%), resulting in a biomass potential drop of 11% and 7%, due to cool weather and poor solar radiation respectively. At the same time, below average rainfall affected California (20 mm, 67% down below average) and resulted in a decrease in the biomass potential (-8%) because of water shortage. Other states enjoyed more favorable conditions and recorded BIOMSS increases, some of them after they had experienced unfavorable conditions during the previous AMJJ monitoring period. For example, in Washington and Oregon, BIOMSS was up by 13% and 7%, respectively. The diversity of situations resulted in nationwide BIOMSS being close to average (+1%) and a generally favorable maximum VCI of 0.93. The CALF was 3% above the five-year average and the cropping intensity was 11% above the average.
Altogether, CropWatch estimates the production of soybean and possibly maize to be below average, while production of winter wheat will stay average and the production of rice will increase. Considering that this monitoring period covers the early sowing of winter wheat, the production of 2019/20 winter wheat is still open.
图. Phenology of major crops 7_10_USA
图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_USA
图.X Time series rainfall pofile_USA
图.X Time series temperature pofile_USA
图.X Maximum VCI and Cropped and uncropped arable land in july - Oct in 2019.
图.X Potential biomass departure from 5YA
图.X Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles
In the Corn Belt, the major production zone of maize and soybean, precipitation was in large excess (52% above average). The temperature and sunshine were lower than average (TEMP down 0.7℃, RADPAR down 3%), resulting in a BIOMSS drop of 4%. NDVI values over the Corn Belt were lower than average until July but slightly above average thereafter. The pattern may have resulted from delayed maize and soybean planting because very wet soil conditions, and cooler temperatures in spring and early summer. CALF was average. The production of maize and soybean will be down in North and south Dakota, especially in the eastern regions of the corn belt, and Minnesota.
Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in CornBelt
The Northern Plains are a major production zone for spring wheat and maize. The monitoring period covered the late harvest seasons of spring wheat. The area recorded almost double the average rainfall (+99%), with a temperature drop (2.4℃ below average) and low sunshine (RADPAR down 4%). The potential biomass decreased 10%. NDVI in the Northern Plain was higher than average after Jun and VCIx reached 0.99, indicating good crop condition. The cropped land fraction was significantly above average by 19%. CropWatch analyses indicate a normal production in the Northern Plains.
Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in North Plain
The Northwest is an important regions for winter wheat and spring wheat. Although the weather was cooler than average (temperature down 1.6°C and RADPAR down 3%), the increased rainfall resulted in increased biomass by 4%. The NDVI profile was lower than average before Jun but above average after that. CALF increased 13% and favorable growing conditions are confirmed by VCIx at 0.99. Crop condition and likely output is assessed as average, i.e. normal for local conditions.
Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Northwest
The Southern Plains are the major production region of winter wheat, cotton, and sorghum. Favorable precipitation (up 24%), normal temperature and good sunshine (RADPAR up 2%) contributed to an increased biomass (5%). The NDVI profiles fluctuated around the average. As CALF (86%) was at the five years’ average and VCIx reached 0.97, satisfactory yields and average production are expected.
Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in South Plain
The South-east is the major production region of cotton and maize. The NDVI profiles were just below average. However, the warm weather (TEMP up 1°C), increased sunshine (RADPAR up 2%) and abundant rainfall (up 12%) provided favorable growing conditions, which is confirmed by VCIx (0.90). With the BIOMSS index up 7%, crops production is expected to be at least average.
Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Southeast
The Lower Mississippi is a major production area for rice, maize and soybeans. The temperature (up 0.2 °C) and RADPAR (+2%) were close to average and higher rainfall (up 29%) created good growing condition; BIOMSS increased 6%. Both the NDVI profiles and a good VCIx value of 0.94 point at fair crop output.
Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Lower Mississippi
California had an 8% drop in BIOMSS due essentially to low rainfall (-64% compared to average). Although only half of the arable land was cropped (CALF at 49%), the index is nevertheless up 25% compared with the average of recent five years.
Figure.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in California
Table *: American agroclimatic indicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,July-October 2019.
|Current (mm)||Departure from 15YA (%)||Current (°C)||Departure from 15YA (°C)||Current (MJ/m2)||Departure from 15YA (%)||Current (gDM/m2)||Departure from 15YA (%)|
|Blue Grass region||391||14||21.4||0.8||1205||5||700||9|
|Alaska and Hawaii||556||-1||10.2||2.0||684||15||221||35|
Table *: American agronomic indicators by sub-nationalregions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2019.
|Region||Cropped arable land fraction||Cropping Intensity||Maximum VCI|
|Current (%)||Departure from 5YA (%)||Current (%)||Departure from 5YA (%)||Current|
|Blue Grass region||100||0||115||9||0.93|
|Alaska and Hawaii||100||1||107||-2||0.95|