In Mexico, winter wheat harvest began in April. Maize and soybean planting started in May and will reach maturity by September/October.
The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that TEMP (+0.6°C) and RADPAR (-1%) were close to average and RAIN was slightly above the 15YA (+6%), which was beneficial for crop growth. Accordingly, BIOMSS increased by 5% as comparted to the 15YA. However, VCIx was relatively low (0.76) and CALF decreased by 5% but still slight above the previous year. Reasons for this decline are not clear, but could be related to a negative impact of COVID-19 on the agricultural market. Crop conditions are mixed, ranging from slightly unfavorable to average.
At the national scale, the NDVI development graph trailed below average between April to July. But the conditions varied greatly across the country. According to its spatial pattern, the VCIx in the south was higher than that in the north. Very high values (greater than 1.0) occurred mainly in southeastern Mexico (including Veracruz, Tabasco and western Campeche), whereas extremely low values (less than 0.5) occurred in the drier north-east and center of the country (northwestern Coahuila, eastern Sonora, Sinaloa and eastern Coahuila ). The VCIx in other regions of Mexico was moderate, with values between 0.5 and 1.0. As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, about 29.2% of the total cropped areas were below average during the entire monitoring period, mainly distributed in the west of Guerrero, west of Oaxaca, west of Michoacán, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Nuevo León while 17.9% of the total cropped areas, mainly in Chihuahua and Sonora provinces, were just slightly above average. An area accounting for 35.1% of the total region changed little and was close to average.
Regional analysis
Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions can provide more detail for the production situation in Mexico.
The Arid and semi-arid regions, located in northern and central Mexico, account for about half of planted areas in the country. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was generally close to average during the reporting period. VCIx was relatively low with a value of 0.65 and CALF decreased by 13% compared with 5YA. RAIN and TEMP increased by 23% and 0.4°C respectively and RADPAR decreased by 3%, which all resulted in an increase of BIOMSS (+9%).
Theregion of Humid tropics with summer rainfall is located in southeastern Mexico. RAIN was significantly above average (+21%), TEMP was 0.6℃ warmer and RADPAR near the fifteen-year average. As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average in April and closed to average from May to July. BIOMSS decreased by 3% and the VCIx (0.93) confirmed favorable crop condition in these regions.
The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions remained close to average in this region. The agro-climatic condition showed that RAIN decreased by 11% and TEMP increased by 0.7°C, respectively and RADPAR increased by 1% compared to average. BIOMSS also increased by 3% and CALF was 93%. The VCIx in these regions was low, only 0.73. The production of rice and soybean in the region is expected to decline.
The region called Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop condition was below average since April, as shown by the NDVI time profiles. Agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN was slightly below average (-6%) while TEMP and RADPAR were near average (+0.7°C and 0%). The VCIx in these area was 0.84 and BIOMSS was near average.
Figure 3.29 Mexico’s crop condition, April - July 2020
(a). Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles (g) Temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))
Table 3.49 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2020
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current (mm) | Departure (%) | Current (°C) | Departure (°C) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure (%) | |
Arid and semi-arid regions | 441 | 23 | 23.5 | 0.4 | 1518 | -3 | 736 | 9 |
Humid tropics with summer rainfall | 1016 | 21 | 26.6 | 0.6 | 1368 | 0 | 845 | -3 |
Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains | 635 | -11 | 21.3 | 0.7 | 1461 | 1 | 684 | 3 |
Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains | 628 | -6 | 24.2 | 0.7 | 1459 | 0 | 744 | 3 |
Table 3.50 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2020
Region | Cropped arable land fraction | Cropping intensity | Maximum VCI | ||
Current (%) | Departure (%) | Current (%) | Departure (%) | Current | |
Arid and semi-arid regions | 59 | -13 | - | - | 0.65 |
Humid tropics with summer rainfall | 100 | 0 | - | - | 0.93 |
Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains | 93 | -2 | - | - | 0.73 |
Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains | 95 | -1 | - | - | 0.84 |