The current monitoring period is a crucial time for summercrops in China. In the northeast, maize and soybean were sowed in late Apriland early May. In the north, winter wheat has been harvested and maize has beenplanted, while in the south early rice was harvested and the planting of laterice began in late July. Figures 4.1-4.5 illustrate the distribution and profilesof RAIN and TEMP indicators, as well as the fraction of cropped arable land(CALF), maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), and minimum VegetationHealth Index (VHIn). Indicator values are provided in table 4.1.

Figure 4.1. China spatial distribution ofrainfall profiles, April-July 2014

When compared with the averages for the same period over thepast thirteen years, RAIN increased 10%, TEMP increased 0.7°C, and RADPARdropped 2%. The abundant rainfall and suitable temperature lead to a BIOMSSestimate of 2% above average. In more than 75% of the country, rainfall in thepast five months was almost the same as the thirteen-year average, while it wasabove average in the north of Guangdong and Guangxi provinces. Temperature wasbelow average in early March and May and above average during late March.

In Southern China, above average RAIN, TEMP, and RADPARresulted in higher BIOMSS. In the Huanghuaihai region, below average rainfallled to water stress and the BIOMSS index decreased 11% compared to average. HighVCIx values are mostly distributed in Southern China and in the Northeast. LowVCIx values are mainly located in the North and Northwest, in particular in Gansuand Henan provinces. Crop condition in the northeast of China is above the thirteen-yearaverage (VCIx is 0.93), as temperature and PAR are higher than average andrainfall just slightly below.

The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased 1.6% duringthe monitoring period compared to the five-year average, with most of theuncropped land found in the central areas of Gansu and Shaanxi, in InnerMongolia, and along the Yangtze River. China’s Loess region and the Northeast arethe only two regions with above average CALF (increases of 4.6% and 0.5%,respectively).

Minimum VHI indicates that drought was experienced by almostall regions in north China, along with the south of Hebei, eastern and southernHenan, southwest Shandong, north-east China, and northern Anhui (figure 4.5).

Table 4.1. CropWatch agroclimaticand agronomic indicators for China, April-July 2014, departure from 5YA and13YA

China production outlook

Tables 4.2 and 4.3 list the estimated production numbers formaize, rice, wheat, and soybean in China, for 2014, with table 4.3 providingdetails about the 2014 rice production.

Table 4.2. China, 2014production (thousand tons) and difference with 2013 (percentage)

As shown in table 4.2, the production of maize and soybean isestimated to decrease compared with the previous season, while winter wheatincreases 1% and rice is average. The maize production is expected to reach 192million tons, which represents a decrease of 1% compared to 2013, mainly due toa decrease in yield. Soybean production will reach 13 million tons, with a dropof 1% because of the decrease in harvested area compared to last year. Riceproduction is just slightly above last year’s due to low yield. Rice in Chinaconsists of “single rice,” early rice, and late rice; for 2014, the productionof single rice and late increases, while it falls for early rice (table 4.3).

Of the 17 monitored provinces, Chongqing, Guizhou,Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, and Ningxia all have an estimated increase in maizeproduction above 2%. To the contrary, Gansu, Henan and Inner Mongolia have thelargest decreases in maize production because of a drop in harvested area inGansu and a yield decrease in Henan and Inner Mongolia. Liaoning and Henan arethe two provinces with the largest decreases (3% below) in maize yield due tothe server drought in August. Soybean in Henan shows the largest drop inproduction, as both area and yield are low. Due to an increase in area, soybeanproduction in Anhui and Jilin rises by 1% and 2%, respectively. The single riceproduction in Shaanxi and Henan province decreases by 1% and 5% respectively,mostly because of drought. In Ningxia, single rice production increases by 18%thanks to an increase in cultivated area.

Overall, CropWatch puts the combined production of cereals,legumes, and tubers in China for 2014 at 563 million tons, a stagnation inproduction compared with the 2013 output (-0.1%). Total outputs for summercrops is projected at 405 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons (-0.5%)compared with 2013.

Table 4.3. China, 2014 single rice,early rice, and late rice production and difference with 2013, by province(thousand tons).