The crop conditions were generally above or close to average from April to May, and then changed to below average from late June to July. This report covers the sowing and growth of spring wheat In Kazakhstan. In June, harvest of winter rye and winter wheat started in the southern regions of the country.

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall and temperature were above average (RAIN +41%, TEMP +0.3°C), while radiation was close to average. Precipitation was above the 15-year maximum in late April and mid-May. The temperature fluctuated in the reporting period:  above average from late April to May and mid July, below average from mid June to early July and late July. The agro-climatic conditions resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 2%. 

The national average maximum VCI index was 0.77, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) went down by 4% over the recent five-year average. The spatial VCIx map matched well with the national crop condition development graphs. Crop conditions on about 33.7% of croplands were below average from May to early July, mainly in most of Batysdy Kazakhstan, some parts of Kostanay, Soltustik Kazakhstan, Akmola, Pavlodar, and Almaty States. About 47.3% of croplands, which were distributed across the central northern region, and the south of Ongtustik Kazakhstan and Almaty States, experienced favorable crop conditions from late April to May and dropped to below average from June to early July. Remaining croplands (about 19%) experienced favorable crop conditions from late April to July, mainly in some patches of Kostanay, Soltustik Kazakhstan, Akmola, Shyghys Kazakhstan States. The negative deviation of NDVI from the 5YA starting in June indicates that conditions for spring wheat started to deteriorate and that its prospects are below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

The Northern region is the main spring wheat production area. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN +48%) and temperature (TEMP +0.5°C) were above average, but RADPAR was close to average. The agro-climatic indicators resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 4%.  According to NDVI profiles, crop conditions were close to or above average from April to May, but dropped to below average from June to July. The average VCIx for this region was 0.75, and the proportion of cultivated land was 4% lower than the average. Production is estimated to be below average.

Crop conditions in the Eastern plateau and Southeastern region were mostly below average during this reporting period. The accumulated rainfall in the region was above average (32%), while radiation was below average (RADPAR -3%). The average VCIx for this region was 0.83, and CALF was below average by 4%. Outputs for spring wheat are expected to be below average. 

The South region received 155 mm of rainfall, which was far above average (up 78%).  Temperature and radiation were below average. The average VCIx for this region was 0.79. NDVI profiles show the poor crop condition from April to July. The crop conditions for this region are below average. 

Figure 3.23. Kazakhstan crop condition, April–July 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   

(c) Rainfall Index                                                 (d) Temperature Index 

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA        (g) NDVI profiles

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern zone)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern  plateau and southeastern zone)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South zone)

Table 3.37. Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April–July 2020

Table 3.38. Kazakhstan,agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April–July 2020