This report covers the production period for main maize and rice, which were harvested in October. It also covers the sowing of winter barley and wheat. Overall, crop conditions were generally favorable from July to October. 

RAIN was slightly below average (-2%), together with lower TEMP and RADPAR (-0.3°C and -3% respectively), which resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS (-1%). CropWatch agro-climatic Indicators (CWAIs) were close to average over the 15YA. The overall favorable conditions, together with a high VCIx (0.96) and a significant increase of the fraction of cropped arable land (+12%) indicate favorable production prospects for the summer crops. 

As shown by the nationwide NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average in July and August and later reached and even exceeded the maximum of 5YA in September, which was consistent with the time series profile of RAIN. According to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, 7.2% of the cropped areas presented continuously below-average conditions during the reporting period, which were mostly distributed along the rivers. This could be a result of flooding over the areas close to the rivers due to excessive rainfall. About 22.6% of cropland, concentrated in northern Pakistan, northern Multan and eastern Hyderabad, presented slightly below average conditions before August but recovered to average levels starting in September. Cropping Intensity for the whole country was 146%, which was 1% above average.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indusbasin, the Northern highlands, and the Northern Punjab region.

In the Lower Indus basin, RAIN was greatly above average (+80%) ,TEMP and RADPAR were below average by 0.1°C and 4% respectively. The estimated BIOMSS was 4% above average. NDVI was average in July and August, and later markedly above average.The CALF value of 66% exceeds the average by 15% and a VCIx of 0.92 also indicates excellent crop conditions. Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as favorable.

Compared to average, in the northern highland region, RAIN was above average by 5% and RADPAR and TEMP were below average (-5% and -0.6°C respectively). BIOMSS decreased by 10%. The region also showed a low CALF of 65%, but still higher than the 5YA by 12%. The NDVI profile stayed below average during July to August and subsequently recovered. Overall, the situation for the region is deemed to be at least average.

Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region of Pakistan, recorded below-average RAIN (-21%). TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-0.2°C and -2% respectively). The resulting BIOMSS was 18% below average. The NDVI profile presented below-average conditions during the July to August period, mainly due to a slow start of the monsoon rains. Heavy rainfall in August promoted crop growth and NDVI exceeded the maximum of the 5YA from September to early October. In addition, CALF in this area reached 84%, which was up by 7% compared to 2019, and VCIx was at 0.94. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is assessed as favorable.

Figure 3.23. Pakistan crop condition, July - October 2020

 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus River Basin)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland）

 (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab) 

Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2020

  Table 3.57. Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2020