Table 5.1 presents this year’s second forecast by the CropWatch team of global maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production in 2022. Winter crops in the Northern Hemisphere are still growing and summer crops are in the early stages, or yet to be planted in May. The harvest of the 2021/22 summer or monsoon season in the Southern Hemisphere has been completed. CropWatch will further update and review the production in the August and November 2022 CropWatch bulletins.

This bulletin uses the global crop monitoring system (CropWatch) to quantitatively assess the crop growth of 35 major agricultural producing and exporting countries from January to mid-May 2022 and to conduct remote sensing monitoring and forecasting of bulk food and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat, and soybean).  All the analyses are based on multi-source remote sensing data (e.g., Sentinel-1/2), and are combined with global agroclimatic and agronomic conditions. The percentage of modeled production in global production varies: 21.5% for maize, 58.8％ for rice, 75.9％for wheat (mostly northern hemisphere winter wheat), and 45.5％ for soybeans. CropWatch production estimates rely on crop-specific remote sensing indicators (major producing countries), combining ground observation, statistics (minor producing countries) and crop masks.

(1) Global production

For 2022, CropWatch forecasts the global production of the four main crops as follows: Maize production at 1.086 billion tonnes, an increase of 8.37 million tonnes (+0.8%); Rice production at 769 million tonnes, an increase by +5.47 million tonnes (+0.7%); Wheat production at 713 million tonnes, decreasing by 7.53 million tonnes (-1.0%); Soybean production at 310 million tonnes, decreasing by 3.3% (Table 5.1). During January to early May 2022, the global agricultural climate conditions were generally normal, though extreme heat and severe drought conditions in some regions affected the production of wheat and soybean. In addition, armed conflicts and the Covid-19 pandemic caused a tightening of food exports and exacerbated the shortage of wheat available for international trade. 

(2) Wheat supply situation is threatened by shrunken sown area, decreased yield by drought and extreme heat, and regional conflicts

During the autumn of 2021 in the northern hemisphere, conditions were generally on the dry side, causing winter wheat sown area to decline at varying degrees as compared to the year before. In the northern hemisphere, the period for sowing of rainfed winter wheat lasts from mid September to mid November. During late September to mid-October 2021, short-term rainfall deficits occurred in Europe, Middle East, Central Asia and the south of the USA. As a result, the wheat sown areas decreased in Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Iran, the United States and Afghanistan. Iran and Romania had the largest reduction in winter wheat acreage, shrinking by 11.2% and 11.0% respectively. China's winter wheat sown area decreased by 2.3%, mainly due to severe flooding in some areas of northern China during the winter wheat sowing period. In addition, heavy rainfall and excessive soil wetness delayed wheat sowing in some areas. However, conditions during the winter and spring were quite favorable for wheat growth in most of China.  Thanks to developed irrigation facilities, India's and Pakistan’s wheat sowing was stable. Wheat planting area increased by 2.7% and 1.5%, respectively. The eastern region of Ukraine had experienced a significant increase in wheat sown area and the national winter wheat sown area increased by 3.9%.

Some wheat-producing countries suffered from drought and extreme heat, causing shrivelled grains and a production decline in more than a dozen wheat-producing countries. In the Punjabs of India and Pakistan, as well as in Haryana, temperatures were 5ºC higher than usual starting from mid March. The ensuing terminal heat stress caused a fast brown-down of the crops and shortened the grainfilling period. At the national level, this resulted in wheat yields decreases by 4.9% with production of 25.57 million tonnes in Pakistan and by 2.8% with 93.24 million tonnes production in India. In addition to high-temperatures, continued drought has also led to a yield reduction in the United States, Iran, Italy, Romania and Afghanistan, and other countries. The most  serious drought occurred in Morocco. It had started during the wheat sowing period and lasted until late winter. It caused a significant reduction by 40% in wheat production to 5.4 million tonnes. Wheat yields in the Ukraine and Turkey were also affected by drought conditions. However, the increase in wheat sown area mitigated the yield decrease and led to a slight increase in total wheat production. Global wheat production is expected to be 713 million tonnes, a further decline after 2021’s reduced production. The global wheat supply is expected to remain tight, considering Ukranian wheat cannot be exported via the Black Sea because of the war,  economic sanctions against Russia and wheat export limitations imposed by several countries.

(3) Brazil drought leads to reduced soybean production in the southern hemisphere 

The La Niña led to a severe drought in Brazil's main soybean-producing regions, causing soybean production to decline by 7.09 million tonnes. This is a continuation of the reduction observed for last year. The total 2022 soybean production of Argentina and Brazil, two major soybean-producing countries in the southern hemisphere, was 140.98 million tonnes, a 4.7% reduction in production. Drought conditions led to a 4.9% decline in Brazil's soybean yields. Total production is estimated at 89.21 million tonnes, which is 7.09 million tonnes or 7.4% lower than last year. Argentina’s soybean production is expected to be 51.77 million tonnes, an increase of about 0.3%. Thanks to the favorable weather conditions, the soybean yield  increased by 2.1% and offseted the negative impact of a reduction in planted area. 

(4) With expanded sown area, maize production is expected to increase

The sown area increases of southern hemisphere and equatorial countries contributed to an increased production. The drought at the Horn of Africa caused a significant reduction in maize production. Sowing of maize in the USA and Europe started in mid April only.  Total maize production in the southern hemisphere and equatorial countries (Table 1, about 21.5% of total global maize production) is expected to be 233.16 million tonnes with an increase of 10.37 million tonnes (+4.7%), due to an increase in maize growing areas in countries such as Angola, Argentina, Mexico, Mozambique, South Africa and Thailand. Higher maize prices make it more lucrative for farmers to grow maize. Brazil's first season maize area was significantly reduced by the severe drought, but the second season maize area increased significantly by 9.2%, and the annual maize area still increased slightly. Thanks to the expansion of maize growing area, most of the southern hemisphere and equatorial region countries’ maize production increased slightly, and Brazil's second season maize production increased significantly, prompting the Brazil's annual maize production to increase by 9.0%. Among the world's major maize-producing countries, only Kenya's maize was affected by a severe drought. It caused a  reduction in both yields and area, resulting in a 12.9% decrease of maize production. Based on remote sensing analyses, CropWatch found that maize sowing progress was delayed in Russia (-22.4%), Ukraine (-35.0%), Romania (-14.6%), Italy (-5.9%), the United States (-13.1%) and Canada (-27.8%) .

(5) Global rice production is well expected

The rice produciont in most rice-producing countries of South and Southeast Asia increased slightly, contributing to an increase of 5.47 million tonnes in global rice production, while rice production in the Philippines and Thailand decreased slightly. This monitoring period marks the dry season in most of South and Southeast Asia countries. The  beginning of the rainy season varies between April and June. Most rice production during the winter months is irrigated. Bangladesh (4.2%), Cambodia (1.1%), India (1.5%), Indonesia (3.1%), Myanmar (4.8%), Sri Lanka (3.3%), and Vietnam (1.7%) experienced a  increase in rice production. Thailand and the Philippines experienced a small decline in rice area, resulting in a 0.7% and 0.2% decrease in rice production, respectively. In the southern hemisphere countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Mozambique, rice area also shrank, resulting in a reduction of 2.9%, 9.1%, and 5.3% in rice production, respectively.

Table 5.1 2022 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousand tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2022 production when compared with corresponding 2021 values.