This report covers the vegetative growth period of winter wheat, winter barley and rapeseed. According to the crop condition development graph, NDVI values were below average from January to April. Rainfall and temperature were significantly above average (RAIN +19%, TEMP +1.1°C) and radiation was below average （RADPAR -13%). The combined impact of these agroclimatic factors resulted in increased biomass (BIOMSS +11%). The seasonal RAIN profile shows that rainfall was above average in February and early April, when it even exceeded the 15 year maximum. The temperature was above average for most of the period.

The national average VCIx was 0.86. CALF (99%) was unchanged compared to its five-year average. Crop production index was 0.96. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 51.4% of arable land experienced average crop conditions, mainly in the south of the United Kingdom.  (2) 48.6% of arable land experienced below average crop conditions, mainly in the east and north of the United Kingdom. Altogether, the conditions for wheat in the UK are assessed to be below average due to excessive rainfall.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions can be distinguished: the Northern barley region （84）, Central sparse crop region （83） and Southern mixed wheat and barley region (85). The fractions of cropped arable land (CALF) in all subregions are average compared to the 5-year average.

The Northern barley region experienced above-average rainfall and  temperature (RAIN +9%; TEMP +0.5°C), while radiation was significantly below average (RADPAR -12%). Biomass was above average (BIOMSS +5%). NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graph. The VCIx was 0.85. Crop production index was 0.89. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be below average. 

The Central sparse crop region is one of the major agricultural regions in terms of crop production. The agro-climatic conditions are similar to the Northern barley region. The rainfall and  temperature were  significantly above-average (RAIN +18%; TEMP +1.1°C), while radiation was significantly below average (RADPAR -15%). Biomass was above average (BIOMSS +8%). NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graph. The VCIx was 0.85. Crop production index was 0.90. Altogether, the conditions for wheat are expected to be below average. 

Southern mixed wheat and barley zone experienced the largest positive departure in  rainfall and  temperature （RAIN +32%; TEMP +1.6°C) within the United Kingdom. The radiation was significantly below average (RADPAR -14%). Biomass was significantly above average (BIOMSS +16%). NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graph. The VCIx was 0.86. Crop production index was 0.98. Altogether, the conditions for wheat are expected to be below average. 

Figure 3.17 United Kingdom’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

(i) CPI Time Series graph

Table 3.25 United Kingdom's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 3.26 United Kingdom's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, January - April 2024