NIGERIA (AUGUST BULLETIN, 2024)

Authors. Babamaaji Rakiya, Akinola Jumoke, Awe-peter Helen, Ajih Enenche, Umar Sani

This report provides an overview of crop conditions for maize (North/main), second-season maize, maize (South/main), irrigated rice and rain- fed rice in Nigeria from April to July, 2024. This monitoring period covers the sowing to growing stage for maize (North/main) and sowing to harvest stages for maize (south/main) , it also covers the sowing to growing stages for both irrigated and rainfed-rice. During this period, the monsoon rains started in late April and remained mostly below average until mid June. Agroclimatic indicators show that rainfall declined by 14% below the 15YA, but temperature was significantly increased by 1.1°C. There was no change in the radiation while potential biomass is estimated to decrease by 8%. The NDVI development graph shows all crop conditions values were below the 5-year average, this may be due to reduced rainfall. The NDVI departure clustering map shows that 25.3% of the total cropped land area are predominantly distributed across the Sahel savanna and Sudan savanna and cropped arable land covering about 23.3% in Guinea and Derived savannah area have values increasing above average from June. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 2% compared to its 5YA with maximum VCI value of 0.84. The Crop Production Index CPI is (0.95). Overall, conditions improved from below average to close to average between April and July.

Regional Analysis

Nigeria has nine sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on cropping systems, climate, and topography: Sahel Savannah (152), Sudan Savannah (153), Guinea Savannah (147), Derived Savannah (145), Jos Plateau (148), Montane Forest (151), Lowland Rainforest (149), Freshwater Swamp Forest (146), and Mangrove Forest (150).  The Sahel Savanah is located in the country's North-East, it boarders the Sudan Savanah, which covers the entire Northern area. The Guinea savannah is the largest, stretching from the Sudan Savanah to the Derived Savanah and spanning much of the country's central region. The freshwater swamp forest, montane forest, and mangrove forest located in the southern half of the country have few agricultural fields and hence will not be discussed.

In the Derived Savannah Zone, agro-climatic indicators revealed a 7% decrease in rainfall compared to 15YA with 1.3°C increase in temperature resulting in 7% decline in biomass. The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions in this zone were above the 5YA from mid-June to July. No change from the 5YA was detected for CALF, with a maximum VCI of 0.89 and a crop production index (CPI) of 0.94. This indicates crop conditions were below normal for the monitoring period.

Low Land Rainforest Zone experienced a 16% decline in rainfall compared to the 15YA, with an increase in temperature (ΔTEMP+1.0°C) and an 8% decrease in biomass. The NDVI development graph reveals that the crop condition values in the zone were above the 5YA from June, with a maximum VCI of 0.90 and a crop production index (CPI) of 0.94, indicating below normal crop conditions in the region.

The Guinea Savannah Zone had a 12% decrease in rainfall compared to 15 YA, while temperature increased above the 15YA (ΔTEMP+1.3°C), resulting in an 8% decrease in biomass and a 7% reduction in CALF. The NDVI development graph reveals that agricultural conditions in the zone declined below the 5YA during the monitoring period, with a maximum VCI of 0.81 and a crop production index (CPI) of 0.87, indicating  crop conditions were below normal in the region.

Jos Plateau Zone experienced decreased rainfall by 20% compared to 15YA, while temperature increased by 1.4°C resulting in decreased biomass by 15% and reduction in CALF by 2%. The NDVI development graph shows that the crop condition in the zone falls below 5YA, maximum VCI of 0.79 and crop production index (CPI) of 0.91, indicating crop conditions were below normal. 

The Sahel Savannah Zone, showed that rainfall decreased by 5% compared to 15YA, temperature increased by 0.4°C and radiation by 1%. Biomass increased by 2% while CALF increased by 12%. The NDVI development graph shows that the crop condition improved above the 5YA in July, indicating a maximum VCI of 1.01 and crop production index (CPI) of 1.59 which indicates highly favorable crop production.

In the Sudan Savannah Zone, rainfall decreased by 18% compared to 15YA, the temperature increased by 0.9°C, while there was a decrease in biomass by 5% and CALF by 5%. The NDVI development graph shows that crop condition in the zone fell below the 5YA in the monitoring period, with a maximum VCI of 0.78 and crop production index (CPI) of 0.99, which indicates crop conditions were  normal.

Figure 3. 37   Nigeria’s crop condition, April-July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI    (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) CPI time series graph

  (g) Rainfall profiles                                                          (h) Temperature Profiles 

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Derived Savannah, Right: Lowland Rainforest)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Guinea Savannah, Right: Jos Plateau)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Sahel Savannah, Right: Sudan Savannah)

Table 3. 65 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA. April-July 2024

Table 3. 66 Nigeria's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2024