The crop production index (CPI) shows signs of marginal improvement during this monitoring period (October 2024-January 2025), rising to 0.97 from its historical low of 0.91 in 2024, ending the downward trend that began in 2020 (Figure 1.1). However, the current index remains below both the baseline (1.0) and the five-year average (0.99), indicating that global crop production has not yet fully returned to normal levels. With a 14% recovery gap remaining from the 2020 peak of 1.13, substantial recovery in global agricultural production continues to face multiple constraints. Future trends will require close monitoring of both environmental variables and policy interventions and their combined effects.

Figure 1.1 Global CPI series

Significant Regional Divergence in Global Crop Production

During this monitoring period (October 2024-January 2025), major agricultural activities are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere and equatorial regions, with key focus on rice in South and Southeast Asia, maize in the Southern Hemisphere, and soybeans in South America. Overall, crops face multiple meteorological stresses, with prominent risks in major grain-producing areas including central-eastern Brazil, Southern Africa, and Southeast Asia. While winter crops in the Northern Hemisphere are in their dormancy period, the unusually warm winter may pose potential threats to spring agricultural production.

Soybean production in South America and rice production in equatorial regions remains generally normal, while rice production in Southeast Asia shows unfavorable conditions, and maize production in the Southern Hemisphere is poor. The maize supply chain faces certain pressures, requiring close attention to the market transmission effects of reduced maize production in the current Southern Hemisphere season. Southern Africa faces high food insecurity risks due to drought conditions (Figure 1.2).

Figure 1.2 Spatial distribution of CPI for major production zones  

Brazilian Soybean Regions Face Multiple Stresses, Yet Less Severe Than Last Year

As a globally significant soybean-producing region, central-eastern Brazil has experienced notable precipitation deficits (-50% to -75%) along with above-average temperatures (1.5-2.5℃) and reduced photosynthetically active radiation (-5% to -10%). These conditions have led to potential cumulative biomass being 25% below the normal level. While soybean growth faces stresses, with CPI ranging between 0.73-1.0, there is still a year-on-year improvement. This improvement is primarily attributed to well-matched rainfall and temperature conditions during the pod-filling stage, resulting in increased soybean yields compared to the previous year (Figure 1.3).

Figure 1.3. Global agrometeorological indicator anomaly map

Southeast Asian Rice Production Outlook Unfavorable During Dry Season, May Impact Global Supply

Agricultural conditions in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Indonesian archipelago, show concerning trends. The region's CPI generally remains low at 0.8-1.0. Despite above-average precipitation (25% to 50%), reduced photosynthetically active radiation (-3% to -5%) may affect rice photosynthesis. Given the region's significance as a global rice producer, these conditions could adversely affect global rice supply.

Southern Africa Faces Food Security Risks

Agricultural production in Southern Africa is under dual pressure from high temperatures (1-1.5℃ above average) and rainfall deficits. This has resulted in low CPI values of 0.7-0.9, with potential cumulative biomass 25% below historical averages, raising significant food security concerns for the region.

Northern Hemisphere Spring Production Set to Begin

Meanwhile, the Northern Hemisphere's agricultural regions have experienced an unusually warm winter, with significantly higher temperatures (1.5-2.5℃ above average) in the U.S. Midwest and Central Eurasia. While this may enable earlier spring planting activities, it also increases risks of pest infestations and potential late frost damage.