This section summarizes the major global disaster events that occurred from October 2024 to January 2025. It covers various extreme disaster events that pose threats to food security, including high temperatures and droughts, typhoons, and the impacts of La Niña (Figure 1.7).

          Figure 1.7 the precipitation, temperature and drought during 2023-2015 in the global cropland

The hottest on record globally in January, and drought in rainfed farmland remains severe

On February 6, 2025, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), citing data processed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service Center, a partner of the United Nations, stated that the world had just experienced the hottest January on record, with the temperature 0.79 degrees Celsius higher than the average from 1991 - 2020. Analysis by the CropWatch team shows that the average temperature of global farmland in January reached 7.67℃, the highest among 15 years, nearly 1℃ higher than the average from 2009 - 2023. Simulations using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) indicate that the overall drought situation on the global land eased from 2024 - 2025, but the drought in global rainfed farmland showed an aggravating trend. During the monitoring period from October 2024 to January 2025, precipitation in global farmland remained persistently low, and mild droughts were widespread in rainfed farmland. The rising temperature exacerbated this drought situation, making the drought problem in rainfed farmland even more serious.The water use pressure on farmland is increasing, and the drought levels of farmland in the some areas of Brazil, Argentina and  southern Africa were relatively high. 

Based on the evapotranspiration data during the monitoring period, the water stress drought index of farmlands in the world's major agro-ecological zones indicates (Figure 1.8) that in October 2024, the drought levels of farmlands in Brazil and southern Mozambique were relatively high, and there was also water stress in parts of Angola, Kenya, and Nigeria. In November, the farmlands in central Brazil showed a trend of being drier. The areas affected by water stress expanded in Mozambique, Zambia, southern Africa, and eastern Africa. The drought in the southeastern part of Vietnam intensified. Affected by typhoons, the droughts in the Florida Peninsula of the United States and the northern part of the Philippines were alleviated. In December, the risk levels of drought disasters were relatively high in Mozambique, the central and northern parts of Zambia, the sparse grassland areas of Nigeria, and the northeastern part of India. In January 2025, countries such as Mozambique were affected by typhoons, and the droughts were alleviated to a certain extent. However, the drought levels were relatively high in southern Brazil, Argentina, the western part of South Africa, and the western part of Australia. In the northern hemisphere countries where most crops are in the wintering period, in December 2024, the drought levels increased in the western part of the United States, the central and eastern parts of Iran, the western part of Afghanistan, as well as in North China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the southern part of China. In January 2025, the water stress increased in Central and Eastern Europe, the northwestern part of China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region. The rapid development of drought in these regions deserves close attention.

Figure 1.8 Map of Water Water Pressure and Drought Levels in Main Agro-ecological Zones from October 2024 to January 2025

From November to December, the temperature risk levels of maize in South America and Africa are relatively high.

From the maps of high - temperature hazard levels with a return period of 5 or more years (Figure 1.9), it can be seen that:

In October, the areas with a high-temperature hazard for maize were concentrated in a large area of Brazil in South America. The areas with a high - temperature hazard for wheat were concentrated in parts of central United States, parts of Argentina in South America, the southeast and southwest of Australia, and parts of southern Africa. The areas with a high - temperature hazard for soybeans were in parts of the western coast of the United States and some regions in South America.

In November, the areas with a high-temperature hazard for maize were widely in Brazil in South America, and some areas in central and northern Africa. The areas with a high - temperature hazard for wheat were distributed in parts of India, parts of southern Africa, the southeast of Australia, and parts of Argentina in South America. The areas with a high - temperature hazard for soybeans appeared in parts of India and parts of Argentina in South America.

In December, the areas with a high-temperature hazard for maize were mainly distributed in most parts of Brazil, and some parts of southern and central Africa. The areas with a high - temperature hazard for wheat included parts of Southeast Asia and small areas in southern Australia.

In January 2025, the areas with a high-temperature hazard for maize were mainly distributed in most parts of Brazil in South America, and some parts of southern and central Africa. The areas with a high - temperature risk for wheat mainly included parts of Southeast Asia and small areas in southern Australia.

Overall, from November to December, the areas with a relatively high temperature-hazard level for maize were more widely distributed in southern America and Africa.

Figure 1.9 The temperature hazard areas (return period of 5 or more years) for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans during the monitoring period

Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones have occurred frequently, and heavy precipitation has caused serious damage to agriculture in some coastal countries

In November 2024, a total of 11 tropical cyclones were active globally. For the first time in the meteorological records of the Western Pacific, four typhoons together occurred. Successively, four typhoons made landfall in the Philippines, causing floods and landslides in many places. The three regions of Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon, which were originally important rice - producing areas in the Philippines and accounted for half of the rice production in the fourth quarter, saw a large amount of rice submerged by floods and blown down by strong winds due to the typhoon attacks, resulting in a significant decline in production. A total of 350,000 tons of maize and 112,000 tons of vegetables were destroyed by typhoons and inclement weather. Heavy rainfall and floods not only directly destroyed these crops but also created favorable conditions for the breeding and spread of pests and diseases.

The Atlantic hurricane season was highly active and destructive. In November, Hurricane Rafael directly or indirectly caused casualties in many countries and serious damage to agriculture. Taking the agricultural - rich Artemisa Province in Cuba as an example, about 9,000 hectares of banana plantations and 3,800 hectares of cassava fields were affected, and crops such as rice, beans, maize, and tobacco were also not spared.

In December 2024 and January 2025, Mozambique was hit by tropical cyclones Chido and Dikeledi respectively, which had an impact on multiple industries such as agriculture, fishery, and tourism, causing huge economic losses.

The La Niña phenomenon is likely to undergo a transformation during the period from March to May 2025.

According to the authoritative forecast released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, the La Niña phenomenon is having a profound impact on the global climate pattern. When the La Niña phenomenon first showed signs at the end of 2024, it was widely expected to slow down the pace of global warming to some extent. However, in January 2025, the La Niña phenomenon was not only weak in intensity but also relatively lagging in its development process. Its inherent cooling effect was greatly weakened, and the temperature in January continued the record-breaking trend of the past two years.

The La Niña phenomenon is expected to persist from February to April 2025, and it is highly likely to transition to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state between March and May 2025. In regions that received abundant precipitation during the La Niña period, the precipitation pattern is likely to change as the climate state shifts, thus affecting the irrigation and growth cycles of crops. In terms of impact on water resources, some originally arid regions may receive more precipitation due to the climate transition, while regions that were originally humid may face the risk of drought. This poses new challenges for the management and distribution of water resources. Governments and relevant institutions around the world need to pay close attention to this climate transition and take preventive measures in advance to mitigate the potential adverse impacts.