The main crops of Australia are wheat and barley, which are planted mainly from the end of April to July to be harvested from October to January. During the monitored time period, the national NDVI profile shows generally average condition, with above average values in April and May, and average values in June and July, compared to the five-year average.

Also compared with average conditions, Australia was deficient in rainfall (about 34% countrywide) with close to average temperature (TEMP, -0.4°C) and sunshine (RADPAR, +1%). The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) attained 90%, 1% above the five-year average. The VCIx was around 0.32 during the planting season of wheat and barley. Western Australia shows below average condition due to poor rainfall (RAIN, -58%), with close to average temperature (TEMP, -0.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR, 0%). The resulting BIOMSS drop is 51%. The southeastern part of South Australia also shows below average condition, while the other regions experienced overall above average weather, including southeastern New South Wales and western and northern Victoria. The efficient irrigation infrastructure in Australia has made up for the decreased rainfall.

On the whole, CropWatch estimates the production of Australia will decrease a bit by 6% in 2017 with a yield decrease of 6.4% and an area increase of 0.4%, compared with 2016.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, five sub-national regions can be distinguished for Australia, which are relevant for crops cultivation. These five regions are the Southeastern wheat zone, Southwestern wheat zone, Arid and semi-arid zone, Wet temperate and subtropical zone, and Subhumid subtropical zone.

Southeastern wheat zone

The crop condition in the Southeastern wheat zone was moderate throughout the monitored period: above average in April and May but below average in June and July. This region recorded a 13% deficit in rainfall with a temperature drop of 0.8°C and stable RADPAR, resulting in BIOMSS being 8% below the recent average. CALF has increased by 3.3%, which is the largest departure among the country's five sub-national regions.

Southwestern wheat zone

The southwestern wheat zone shows apparently below average condition reflected by the regional NDVI profile. The region received 57% below average rainfall and 0.2°C below average temperature, with stable radiation. The weather based potential biomass was 52% below the five-year average. The region is the only one in the country where CALF decreased (-1.8%). The situation is confirmed by the NDVI cluster maps in the Western Australia region.

Arid and semi-arid zone

The crop condition in the country's arid and semi-arid zone displays average values. The regional NDVI profile was above the five-year maximum in April and stayed above average until the end of May, dropping slightly below average from June. RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR were about average, and the potential biomass was only 9% below average. CALF was 77%, and VCIx reached 0.76, indicating that slightly lower rainfall has not adversely affected the crops.

Wet temperate and subtropical zone

The crop condition in the wet temperate and subtropical zone appears above average and above the five-year maximum according to the regional NDVI profile. The region was 35% deficient in rainfall with below average temperature (TEMP, -0.3°C) and stable radiation. BIOMSS was 30% below average. The area had high CALF (99%) with moderate VCIx (0.42), indicating a high cropped area but moderate prospects.

Subhumid subtropical zone

The crop condition in Australia's subhumid subtropical zone showed generally average condition during the monitored period, with above average NDVI from April to May, but below average NDVI from June to July. The rainfall shortage reached 46% with normal temperature and RADPAR, while BIOMSS fell 38%. The area had a high CALF (70%) as well as VCIx (0.64), indicating an average cropped area and crop prospects for this sub region.

                                             Figure 3.6a. Australia phenology of major crops

Figure 3.6b. Australia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.6c. Australia maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.6d. Australia spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right).

Figure 3.6f. Southeastern wheat zone (Australia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI.

Figure 3.6g. Southwestern wheat zone (Australia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI.

Figure 3.6h. Arid and semi-arid zone (Australia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI.

Figure 3.6i. Wet temperate and subtropical zone (Australia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI.

Figure 3.6j. Subhumid subtropical zone (Australia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI.

Table 3.5. Australia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2017 

Table 3.6. Australia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2017 

Table 3.7. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Australia in 2017 (thousand tons)