The reporting period covers the harvesting of Rabi (winter) crops such as Rabi rice and wheat, as well as the field preparation and sowing/transplanting of Kharif (summer) crops, including Kharif rice, maize, and soybean. 

On average, the country received "good" monsoon rains (RAIN, +17%). The departure from average was less than 10% (positive or negative) in Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh. Rainfall was below average in four states in peninsular India: Goa (-39%), Karnataka (-17%), Kerala (-28%), and Puducherry (-70%). In contrast, seventeen states recorded rainfall that can be qualified as "above average," with above 50% excess rainfall in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Tripura. Three northern states had below average temperature: Sikkim, -1.5°C; Bihar, -1.4°C; and Himachal Pradesh, -1.4°C, and rather low sunshine (RADPAR, -8%; -3%; and -7% respectively). However, temperature was not a detrimental factor over the reporting period: temperature was high during the early months and later became normal. Similarly with the above-mentioned exceptions, the country received normal radiation, which has resulted in a marginally higher biomass production compared to average. States such as Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand, all show a potential for a higher than average (above +10%) BIOMSS. In contrast, Puducherry has a high negative departure in for the indicator (BIOMSS, -39%). The NDVI distribution indicates a late beginning of the Rabi season, and the VCIx confirms the mixed pattern. 

Regional analysis 

Based on the agroclimatic patterns and topography, India is divided into six regions, which are called: Central India, Eastern coastal Region, Gangetic plains, Northeastern region, Western coastal region and Western dry region. The large variability in agroclimatic condition results in different cropping patterns across the country. Regional crop prospect for the reporting period for six of the seven areas are described below.

Central India

This region has received marginally higher rainfall (678 mm), normal temperature, and average radiation, together indicating a normal biomass production potential for the region. NDVI indicates the late emergence of crops, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction is as low as previous years (0.43). Low VCIx values (0.76) also show a delayed planting and low crop condition.

Eastern Coastal Region

This region has received 15% above average rainfall and normal temperature and radiation, showing potential for a 7% above average biomass accumulation. NDVI values for the region are mixed, with low to high values distributed across the region. In the south, VCIx is low (0.76), while the northern part of the sub-region has a more mixed pattern with an overall Cropped Arable Land Fraction of 56%.

Gangetic Plains

This sub-region has received about 20% above average rainfall, as well as normal temperature and radiation conducive for marginally higher biomass accumulation. Late crop emergence is evident from the NDVI profile, confirmed also by a Cropped Arable Land Fraction of 68%. The VCIx (0.82 for the region) shows a mixed pattern indicating moderate crop prospects.

Northeastern Region

This high rainfall zone of the country received more than 30% above average rainfall, while temperature and radiation were normal, leading to a good biomass accumulation potential. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction is 96%, and VCIx values of 0.8 and above are indicating very good crop condition in this region.

Western Coastal Region

While temperature and radiation were normal, rainfall was below average for the western coastal region over the reporting period. As a result, the accumulated biomass is expected to be marginally below average. The effect of the low rainfall is also reflected in the low Cropped Arable Land Fraction (48%), although crop condition appeared good with a VCIx of 0.85.

Western Dry Region

This region with normally low rainfall received an amount more than 70% over average, as indicated by the CropWatch RAIN indicator. Combined with moderate temperature and radiation, the region thus has a much improved prospect for biomass accumulation. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction is low (24%), but NDVI is relatively higher than in other parts. Moreover, large parts of the arable land in this region have high VCIx values (0.92 for the region), indicating good crop condition.

Overall for the country, the CropWatch assessment indicates delayed planting of Kharif crops in parts of India. Crop prospects are good in the northeastern region and the western Himalaya region, while they are low in the western coastal region and average in other large parts of the country. 

Figure 3.16a. India phenology of major crops

Figure 3.16b. India national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.16c. India maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.16d. India spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.16f. Central India (India) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.16g. Eastern Coastal Region (India) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.16h. Gangatic Plains (India) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.16i. North Eastern Region (India) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.16j. Western Coastal Region (India) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.16k. Western Dry Region (India) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.35. India agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2017

Table 3.36. India agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2017

Table 3.37. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for India in 2017 (thousand tons)