The reporting period from April to July in 2017 mainly covers the harvest of winter/spring rice and the sowing of the 10th month rice in the north. Generally, crop condition was similar to the average of the previous five years in April and May, but clearly below in June and July. It cannot be excluded that the erratic behavior of NDVI in Vietnam and other countries in the region is an artifact due to abnormal cloudiness patterns or other factors. Unfavorable crops occur in more than 34% of the arable land (mainly in the north of the country). The condition is above the reference 5YA in 26.3% of croplands (mainly in the south of the country) where a VCIx near 1.0 confirms the favorable situation. The national NDVI condition development graph also indicates mostly above average crop condition. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that precipitation and biomass were slightly above their respective reference averages (15YA and 5YA) while temperature and RADPAR were slightly below. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) is basically the same as the average. Overall crop condition in the country is satisfactory.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions can be distinguished for Vietnam, among which three are relevant for crops cultivation. These three regions are Southern Vietnam, Northern Vietnam, and Middle Vietnam. 

Southern Vietnam

With the exception of low RADPAR (-6%) and high RAIN (+11%) overall condition of weather and crops was close to average: TEMP -1.0°C and BIOMSS +5%. VCIx was high (1.0) with CALF up 1% over 2016. CropWatch expects average or slightly better production. 

Northern Vietnam

The northern part of the country recorded average rainfall (RAIN equal to 15YA) and about average TEMP (-1°C). The drop in RAPAR is 5% and BIOMSS is down 8%. CALF is unchanged compared to 2016. The crop condition development graph of NDVI shows the above mentioned erratic behavior and its interpretation is inconclusive. Based on agroclimatic indicators, especially RADPAR, below average output is expected.

Middle Vietnam

The situation and expected impact on crop production is almost identical with Southern Vietnam with the exception of a larger rainfall excess and resulting biomass production potential: RAIN, + 42%; TEMP, -1.0°C; RADPAR, -7%; BIOMSS, +13%; VCIx 1; and CALF, +1%. 

With the mentioned caveats, crop prospects are generally fair due to favorable rainfall. Production of rice is likely to increase, especially in the Mekong Delta which produces about half the national output.

Figure 3.33. Vietnam crop condition, April-July 2017

Figure 3.33a. Vietnam phenology of major crops 

Figure 3.33b. Vietnam national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.33c. Vietnam maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.33d. Vietnam spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.33f. Southern Vietnam (Vietnam) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.33g. Northern Vietnam (Vietnam) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.33h. Middle Vietnam (Vietnam) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.87  Vietnam agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2017 

Table 3.88  Vietnam agronomic indicators by sub-national regions , current season values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2017

Table 3.89  CropWatch-estimated rice production for Vietnam in 2017 (thousands tons)